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icon for OpenAI IPO by...?
Finance·IPOs

OpenAI IPO by...?

icon for OpenAI IPO by...?
Finance·IPOs

OpenAI IPO by...?

$2,873,873 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$2,873,873 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31, 2026

$203,714 Vol.

<1%

September 30, 2026

$118,863 Vol.

1%

December 31, 2026

$914,202 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 initially fueled expectations for a late-2026 debut at a potential $1 trillion valuation, but recent signals point to 2027. CFO Sarah Friar told employees on August 19 that the company “will be a public company in 2027,” or sooner if growth continues accelerating, with enterprise revenue now exceeding 40% of the total and on track to match consumer segments. The filing followed similar moves by rival Anthropic amid strong demand for AI exposure, yet advisers have pushed for more time to hit higher valuations while the firm remains unprofitable. Traders monitoring SEC review timelines, revenue inflection, and any public updates on listing windows will watch for catalysts that could shift the 2026 versus 2027 odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,873,873
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 initially fueled expectations for a late-2026 debut at a potential $1 trillion valuation, but recent signals point to 2027. CFO Sarah Friar told employees on August 19 that the company “will be a public company in 2027,” or sooner if growth continues accelerating, with enterprise revenue now exceeding 40% of the total and on track to match consumer segments. The filing followed similar moves by rival Anthropic amid strong demand for AI exposure, yet advisers have pushed for more time to hit higher valuations while the firm remains unprofitable. Traders monitoring SEC review timelines, revenue inflection, and any public updates on listing windows will watch for catalysts that could shift the 2026 versus 2027 odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,873,873
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI IPO by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 18%, followed by "September 30, 2026" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OpenAI IPO by...?" has generated $2.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OpenAI IPO by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OpenAI IPO by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30, 2026" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI IPO by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.