OpenAI’s leadership has signaled a clear preference for a 2027 IPO to pursue a $1 trillion-plus valuation, directly supporting traders’ 85.5% implied probability against a $1T+ listing before 2027. After confidentially filing its S-1 in June 2026, the company faced banker advice to either accept a lower valuation for a late-2026 debut or wait amid volatile tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO swings; CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejected anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter. Its most recent private round closed at $852 billion in March, while annualized revenue has climbed above $40 billion with continued heavy infrastructure spending. CFO Sarah Friar reinforced the timeline in an August all-hands, stating the company “will be a public company in 2027” (or sooner only if growth accelerates sharply) and highlighting ample private capital flexibility. These factors have anchored trader consensus around a deliberate delay.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$298,026 Vol.
$298,026 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
15% chance
$298,026 Vol.
$298,026 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s leadership has signaled a clear preference for a 2027 IPO to pursue a $1 trillion-plus valuation, directly supporting traders’ 85.5% implied probability against a $1T+ listing before 2027. After confidentially filing its S-1 in June 2026, the company faced banker advice to either accept a lower valuation for a late-2026 debut or wait amid volatile tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO swings; CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejected anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter. Its most recent private round closed at $852 billion in March, while annualized revenue has climbed above $40 billion with continued heavy infrastructure spending. CFO Sarah Friar reinforced the timeline in an August all-hands, stating the company “will be a public company in 2027” (or sooner only if growth accelerates sharply) and highlighting ample private capital flexibility. These factors have anchored trader consensus around a deliberate delay.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Market Opened: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$298,026End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s leadership has signaled a clear preference for a 2027 IPO to pursue a $1 trillion-plus valuation, directly supporting traders’ 85.5% implied probability against a $1T+ listing before 2027. After confidentially filing its S-1 in June 2026, the company faced banker advice to either accept a lower valuation for a late-2026 debut or wait amid volatile tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO swings; CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejected anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter. Its most recent private round closed at $852 billion in March, while annualized revenue has climbed above $40 billion with continued heavy infrastructure spending. CFO Sarah Friar reinforced the timeline in an August all-hands, stating the company “will be a public company in 2027” (or sooner only if growth accelerates sharply) and highlighting ample private capital flexibility. These factors have anchored trader consensus around a deliberate delay.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$298,026End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s leadership has signaled a clear preference for a 2027 IPO to pursue a $1 trillion-plus valuation, directly supporting traders’ 85.5% implied probability against a $1T+ listing before 2027. After confidentially filing its S-1 in June 2026, the company faced banker advice to either accept a lower valuation for a late-2026 debut or wait amid volatile tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO swings; CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejected anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter. Its most recent private round closed at $852 billion in March, while annualized revenue has climbed above $40 billion with continued heavy infrastructure spending. CFO Sarah Friar reinforced the timeline in an August all-hands, stating the company “will be a public company in 2027” (or sooner only if growth accelerates sharply) and highlighting ample private capital flexibility. These factors have anchored trader consensus around a deliberate delay.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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