High interest in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks, combined with historical turnout near 80% in recent parliamentary and presidential votes, anchors trader expectations for strong participation in the 70-85% range. Substantial early voting—over 40,000 ballots cast ahead of election day—signals elevated engagement in a contest polls describe as statistically tied, prompting both campaigns and the prime minister to emphasize broad mobilization under a “nation decides” framing. Iceland’s consistent 80%+ rates in comparable national votes provide a reliable base rate, while the narrow yes/no split and first direct public vote on the issue since 2013 sustain momentum without evident suppression factors. Separation toward the upper end could follow record mobilization or favorable weather, whereas lower figures might result from voter fatigue in a low-population electorate or last-minute shifts in undecided segments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated80–85% 46%
70–75% 26%
75–80% 26%
45–50% 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
23%
45–50%
25%
50–55%
24%
55–60%
24%
60–65%
24%
65–70%
24%
70–75%
26%
75–80%
26%
80–85%
27%
85%+
11%
80–85% 46%
70–75% 26%
75–80% 26%
45–50% 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
$0 Vol.
23%
45–50%
$40 Vol.
25%
50–55%
$0 Vol.
24%
55–60%
$0 Vol.
24%
60–65%
$0 Vol.
24%
65–70%
$0 Vol.
24%
70–75%
$0 Vol.
26%
75–80%
$0 Vol.
26%
80–85%
$7 Vol.
27%
85%+
$0 Vol.
11%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.High interest in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks, combined with historical turnout near 80% in recent parliamentary and presidential votes, anchors trader expectations for strong participation in the 70-85% range. Substantial early voting—over 40,000 ballots cast ahead of election day—signals elevated engagement in a contest polls describe as statistically tied, prompting both campaigns and the prime minister to emphasize broad mobilization under a “nation decides” framing. Iceland’s consistent 80%+ rates in comparable national votes provide a reliable base rate, while the narrow yes/no split and first direct public vote on the issue since 2013 sustain momentum without evident suppression factors. Separation toward the upper end could follow record mobilization or favorable weather, whereas lower figures might result from voter fatigue in a low-population electorate or last-minute shifts in undecided segments.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$47End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.High interest in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks, combined with historical turnout near 80% in recent parliamentary and presidential votes, anchors trader expectations for strong participation in the 70-85% range. Substantial early voting—over 40,000 ballots cast ahead of election day—signals elevated engagement in a contest polls describe as statistically tied, prompting both campaigns and the prime minister to emphasize broad mobilization under a “nation decides” framing. Iceland’s consistent 80%+ rates in comparable national votes provide a reliable base rate, while the narrow yes/no split and first direct public vote on the issue since 2013 sustain momentum without evident suppression factors. Separation toward the upper end could follow record mobilization or favorable weather, whereas lower figures might result from voter fatigue in a low-population electorate or last-minute shifts in undecided segments.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$47End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High interest in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks, combined with historical turnout near 80% in recent parliamentary and presidential votes, anchors trader expectations for strong participation in the 70-85% range. Substantial early voting—over 40,000 ballots cast ahead of election day—signals elevated engagement in a contest polls describe as statistically tied, prompting both campaigns and the prime minister to emphasize broad mobilization under a “nation decides” framing. Iceland’s consistent 80%+ rates in comparable national votes provide a reliable base rate, while the narrow yes/no split and first direct public vote on the issue since 2013 sustain momentum without evident suppression factors. Separation toward the upper end could follow record mobilization or favorable weather, whereas lower figures might result from voter fatigue in a low-population electorate or last-minute shifts in undecided segments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions