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icon for Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
Politics·Idaho

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

icon for Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
Politics·Idaho

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

49% chance
Polymarket
NEW
49% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Idaho statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).Idaho's Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act initiative, certified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after supporters submitted well over the required signatures, seeks to establish statutory protections for reproductive decisions including abortion up to fetal viability in a state enforcing one of the nation's strictest bans. Opponents, including Republican leaders, highlight concerns over expanded access and note the legislature's ability to amend or repeal citizen-initiated statutes afterward. Earlier litigation over ballot language and fiscal statements delayed progress but was resolved by the state supreme court. The narrow market edge for rejection reflects Idaho's conservative electorate and historical resistance to such measures, balanced against polling signals of some voter openness to exceptions and the post-Dobbs pattern of competitive abortion ballot outcomes in other states. Upcoming campaign activity, spending, and any late polling shifts could alter the balance before election day.

Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Idaho statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).
Volume
$6,978
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Idaho statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).
Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Idaho statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).Idaho's Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act initiative, certified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after supporters submitted well over the required signatures, seeks to establish statutory protections for reproductive decisions including abortion up to fetal viability in a state enforcing one of the nation's strictest bans. Opponents, including Republican leaders, highlight concerns over expanded access and note the legislature's ability to amend or repeal citizen-initiated statutes afterward. Earlier litigation over ballot language and fiscal statements delayed progress but was resolved by the state supreme court. The narrow market edge for rejection reflects Idaho's conservative electorate and historical resistance to such measures, balanced against polling signals of some voter openness to exceptions and the post-Dobbs pattern of competitive abortion ballot outcomes in other states. Upcoming campaign activity, spending, and any late polling shifts could alter the balance before election day.

Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Idaho statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).
Volume
$6,978
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Idaho Proposition 1 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would create a right to abortion and other reproductive choices in the State of Idaho. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Idaho statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Idaho, including the Idaho Secretary of State (https://sos.idaho.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 49% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 49¢, the market collectively assigns a 49% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

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The current probability for "Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?" is 49% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 49% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

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