**Temporary waivers of the Jones Act have been extended amid energy disruptions from the Iran conflict, but full repeal or removal of its domestic shipping requirements faces entrenched opposition and lacks legislative momentum.** Since March 2026, the Trump administration has granted successive waivers—most recently narrowed and extended through November 15, 2026, with case-by-case voyage reviews focused on energy commodities like petroleum products, LNG, and fertilizers—allowing limited foreign-flag participation to ease supply constraints. These actions have boosted domestic coastal movements of fuels without displacing U.S.-flag vessels in many cases. However, maritime industry groups, shipbuilders, seafarers’ unions, and congressional defenders (including House Speaker Mike Johnson and dozens of House Republicans) have pressed to let waivers expire, citing risks to American jobs, shipbuilding investment, and national maritime capacity. Bills for broader reform or repeal, such as the Open America’s Waters Act introduced in 2025, remain stalled, with analysts noting the absence of sufficient votes for permanent changes before year-end. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% “No” probability aligns with these structural barriers: waivers provide targeted relief rather than statutory removal, and key institutional stakeholders continue prioritizing Jones Act protections. Any shift would require sustained congressional action unlikely to conclude by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Temporary waivers of the Jones Act have been extended amid energy disruptions from the Iran conflict, but full repeal or removal of its domestic shipping requirements faces entrenched opposition and lacks legislative momentum.**
Since March 2026, the Trump administration has granted successive waivers—most recently narrowed and extended through November 15, 2026, with case-by-case voyage reviews focused on energy commodities like petroleum products, LNG, and fertilizers—allowing limited foreign-flag participation to ease supply constraints. These actions have boosted domestic coastal movements of fuels without displacing U.S.-flag vessels in many cases. However, maritime industry groups, shipbuilders, seafarers’ unions, and congressional defenders (including House Speaker Mike Johnson and dozens of House Republicans) have pressed to let waivers expire, citing risks to American jobs, shipbuilding investment, and national maritime capacity.
Bills for broader reform or repeal, such as the Open America’s Waters Act introduced in 2025, remain stalled, with analysts noting the absence of sufficient votes for permanent changes before year-end. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% “No” probability aligns with these structural barriers: waivers provide targeted relief rather than statutory removal, and key institutional stakeholders continue prioritizing Jones Act protections. Any shift would require sustained congressional action unlikely to conclude by December 31.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$1,692End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Temporary waivers of the Jones Act have been extended amid energy disruptions from the Iran conflict, but full repeal or removal of its domestic shipping requirements faces entrenched opposition and lacks legislative momentum.**
Since March 2026, the Trump administration has granted successive waivers—most recently narrowed and extended through November 15, 2026, with case-by-case voyage reviews focused on energy commodities like petroleum products, LNG, and fertilizers—allowing limited foreign-flag participation to ease supply constraints. These actions have boosted domestic coastal movements of fuels without displacing U.S.-flag vessels in many cases. However, maritime industry groups, shipbuilders, seafarers’ unions, and congressional defenders (including House Speaker Mike Johnson and dozens of House Republicans) have pressed to let waivers expire, citing risks to American jobs, shipbuilding investment, and national maritime capacity.
Bills for broader reform or repeal, such as the Open America’s Waters Act introduced in 2025, remain stalled, with analysts noting the absence of sufficient votes for permanent changes before year-end. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% “No” probability aligns with these structural barriers: waivers provide targeted relief rather than statutory removal, and key institutional stakeholders continue prioritizing Jones Act protections. Any shift would require sustained congressional action unlikely to conclude by December 31.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,692End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Temporary waivers of the Jones Act have been extended amid energy disruptions from the Iran conflict, but full repeal or removal of its domestic shipping requirements faces entrenched opposition and lacks legislative momentum.** Since March 2026, the Trump administration has granted successive waivers—most recently narrowed and extended through November 15, 2026, with case-by-case voyage reviews focused on energy commodities like petroleum products, LNG, and fertilizers—allowing limited foreign-flag participation to ease supply constraints. These actions have boosted domestic coastal movements of fuels without displacing U.S.-flag vessels in many cases. However, maritime industry groups, shipbuilders, seafarers’ unions, and congressional defenders (including House Speaker Mike Johnson and dozens of House Republicans) have pressed to let waivers expire, citing risks to American jobs, shipbuilding investment, and national maritime capacity. Bills for broader reform or repeal, such as the Open America’s Waters Act introduced in 2025, remain stalled, with analysts noting the absence of sufficient votes for permanent changes before year-end. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% “No” probability aligns with these structural barriers: waivers provide targeted relief rather than statutory removal, and key institutional stakeholders continue prioritizing Jones Act protections. Any shift would require sustained congressional action unlikely to conclude by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions