**Max Miller faces mounting pressure from domestic abuse allegations made by his ex-wife Emily Moreno, daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno, but remains defiant and locked on the November 2026 ballot for Ohio’s 7th District.** Recent developments include a House Ethics Committee investigation into the claims (which Miller requested to clear his name), calls for resignation from multiple Republican senators including Jon Husted, and shifting polling that has turned the formerly safe Republican seat into a toss-up or lean-Democratic race against ironworker Brian Poindexter. Miller has denied the allegations, loaned his campaign additional funds, and rejected withdrawal deadlines that closed in early August without a GOP replacement. Traders assign roughly 71.5% probability to “No” because his term ends in January 2027, resignation would be required for departure by the December 31, 2026 cutoff, and sustained party pressure or ethics outcomes have not yet produced an exit despite the scandal’s intensity. The “wisdom of crowds” reflected in current pricing incorporates uncertainty over whether Miller will endure the general election or face further developments capable of forcing an earlier departure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated31% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
31% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Miller's departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Max Miller, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Max Miller has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Max Miller and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Max Miller faces mounting pressure from domestic abuse allegations made by his ex-wife Emily Moreno, daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno, but remains defiant and locked on the November 2026 ballot for Ohio’s 7th District.**
Recent developments include a House Ethics Committee investigation into the claims (which Miller requested to clear his name), calls for resignation from multiple Republican senators including Jon Husted, and shifting polling that has turned the formerly safe Republican seat into a toss-up or lean-Democratic race against ironworker Brian Poindexter. Miller has denied the allegations, loaned his campaign additional funds, and rejected withdrawal deadlines that closed in early August without a GOP replacement.
Traders assign roughly 71.5% probability to “No” because his term ends in January 2027, resignation would be required for departure by the December 31, 2026 cutoff, and sustained party pressure or ethics outcomes have not yet produced an exit despite the scandal’s intensity. The “wisdom of crowds” reflected in current pricing incorporates uncertainty over whether Miller will endure the general election or face further developments capable of forcing an earlier departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Miller's departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Max Miller, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Max Miller has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Max Miller and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Max Miller, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Max Miller has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Max Miller and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 4:51 PM ET
Volume
$2,516End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Miller's departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Max Miller, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Max Miller has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Max Miller and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Max Miller faces mounting pressure from domestic abuse allegations made by his ex-wife Emily Moreno, daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno, but remains defiant and locked on the November 2026 ballot for Ohio’s 7th District.**
Recent developments include a House Ethics Committee investigation into the claims (which Miller requested to clear his name), calls for resignation from multiple Republican senators including Jon Husted, and shifting polling that has turned the formerly safe Republican seat into a toss-up or lean-Democratic race against ironworker Brian Poindexter. Miller has denied the allegations, loaned his campaign additional funds, and rejected withdrawal deadlines that closed in early August without a GOP replacement.
Traders assign roughly 71.5% probability to “No” because his term ends in January 2027, resignation would be required for departure by the December 31, 2026 cutoff, and sustained party pressure or ethics outcomes have not yet produced an exit despite the scandal’s intensity. The “wisdom of crowds” reflected in current pricing incorporates uncertainty over whether Miller will endure the general election or face further developments capable of forcing an earlier departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Miller's departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Max Miller, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Max Miller has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Max Miller and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Max Miller, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Max Miller has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Max Miller and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,516End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Max Miller faces mounting pressure from domestic abuse allegations made by his ex-wife Emily Moreno, daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno, but remains defiant and locked on the November 2026 ballot for Ohio’s 7th District.** Recent developments include a House Ethics Committee investigation into the claims (which Miller requested to clear his name), calls for resignation from multiple Republican senators including Jon Husted, and shifting polling that has turned the formerly safe Republican seat into a toss-up or lean-Democratic race against ironworker Brian Poindexter. Miller has denied the allegations, loaned his campaign additional funds, and rejected withdrawal deadlines that closed in early August without a GOP replacement. Traders assign roughly 71.5% probability to “No” because his term ends in January 2027, resignation would be required for departure by the December 31, 2026 cutoff, and sustained party pressure or ethics outcomes have not yet produced an exit despite the scandal’s intensity. The “wisdom of crowds” reflected in current pricing incorporates uncertainty over whether Miller will endure the general election or face further developments capable of forcing an earlier departure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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