Chuck Edwards, the Republican representing North Carolina’s 11th District, announced on August 5, 2026, that he would withdraw from his reelection campaign but complete his current term ending in early January 2027. The decision followed a House Ethics Committee report recommending censure for what it described as persistent unprofessional conduct toward two female staffers. Edwards has repeatedly stated his intent to serve out the remainder of his term without interruption. North Carolina Republicans quickly selected a replacement nominee for the November 2026 ballot, and subsequent statements from Edwards have reaffirmed his commitment to remaining in office through the end of the year. These developments have produced broad trader consensus that no early vacancy will occur before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated18% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
18% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chuck Edwards' departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Chuck Edwards, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Chuck Edwards has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chuck Edwards and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Chuck Edwards, the Republican representing North Carolina’s 11th District, announced on August 5, 2026, that he would withdraw from his reelection campaign but complete his current term ending in early January 2027. The decision followed a House Ethics Committee report recommending censure for what it described as persistent unprofessional conduct toward two female staffers. Edwards has repeatedly stated his intent to serve out the remainder of his term without interruption. North Carolina Republicans quickly selected a replacement nominee for the November 2026 ballot, and subsequent statements from Edwards have reaffirmed his commitment to remaining in office through the end of the year. These developments have produced broad trader consensus that no early vacancy will occur before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chuck Edwards' departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Chuck Edwards, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Chuck Edwards has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chuck Edwards and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Chuck Edwards, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Chuck Edwards has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chuck Edwards and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 6:34 PM ET
Volume
$8,302End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 6:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chuck Edwards' departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Chuck Edwards, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Chuck Edwards has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chuck Edwards and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Chuck Edwards, the Republican representing North Carolina’s 11th District, announced on August 5, 2026, that he would withdraw from his reelection campaign but complete his current term ending in early January 2027. The decision followed a House Ethics Committee report recommending censure for what it described as persistent unprofessional conduct toward two female staffers. Edwards has repeatedly stated his intent to serve out the remainder of his term without interruption. North Carolina Republicans quickly selected a replacement nominee for the November 2026 ballot, and subsequent statements from Edwards have reaffirmed his commitment to remaining in office through the end of the year. These developments have produced broad trader consensus that no early vacancy will occur before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chuck Edwards' departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Chuck Edwards, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Chuck Edwards has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chuck Edwards and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Chuck Edwards, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Chuck Edwards has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chuck Edwards and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,302End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 6:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Chuck Edwards, the Republican representing North Carolina’s 11th District, announced on August 5, 2026, that he would withdraw from his reelection campaign but complete his current term ending in early January 2027. The decision followed a House Ethics Committee report recommending censure for what it described as persistent unprofessional conduct toward two female staffers. Edwards has repeatedly stated his intent to serve out the remainder of his term without interruption. North Carolina Republicans quickly selected a replacement nominee for the November 2026 ballot, and subsequent statements from Edwards have reaffirmed his commitment to remaining in office through the end of the year. These developments have produced broad trader consensus that no early vacancy will occur before December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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