**Marine Le Pen remains an active member of France’s National Assembly following the July 2026 Paris appeals court ruling in her embezzlement case.** The court upheld her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds to finance National Rally staff but reduced the public-office ban from five years to 45 months (30 suspended), determining that the 15-month effective portion had already been served since the March 2025 first-instance verdict. This preserved her parliamentary seat and group leadership role, distinguishing the Assembly mandate from other elective offices affected by the original ruling. Le Pen announced she would appeal to the Cour de Cassation, which suspends enforcement of the remaining penalties, including any electronic monitoring requirement. As of mid-August 2026, parliamentary records list her as “en activité,” with recent votes recorded. No legislative dissolution or new ineligibility trigger has emerged in the past month, though the ongoing highest-court review and any future snap elections within the current term represent the main variables that could alter her status before the 2027 presidential contest. Trader pricing reflects the limited near-term pathways to removal absent a decisive adverse ruling or procedural change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
October 31
3%
$3,440 Vol.

October 31
3%
The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Marine Le Pen remains an active member of France’s National Assembly following the July 2026 Paris appeals court ruling in her embezzlement case.** The court upheld her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds to finance National Rally staff but reduced the public-office ban from five years to 45 months (30 suspended), determining that the 15-month effective portion had already been served since the March 2025 first-instance verdict. This preserved her parliamentary seat and group leadership role, distinguishing the Assembly mandate from other elective offices affected by the original ruling. Le Pen announced she would appeal to the Cour de Cassation, which suspends enforcement of the remaining penalties, including any electronic monitoring requirement. As of mid-August 2026, parliamentary records list her as “en activité,” with recent votes recorded. No legislative dissolution or new ineligibility trigger has emerged in the past month, though the ongoing highest-court review and any future snap elections within the current term represent the main variables that could alter her status before the 2027 presidential contest. Trader pricing reflects the limited near-term pathways to removal absent a decisive adverse ruling or procedural change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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