The tight clustering of implied probabilities for the 2026 AL pennant reflects intense parity across the American League, driven by the AL East's narrow standings gap where the Rays hold a slim lead at 76-53 over the Yankees at 73-56 and Red Sox at 70-59. Superior run differentials for New York and Boston underscore their offensive depth and pitching resilience despite recent roster challenges, including Yankees injuries. Contenders like the White Sox atop the Central and Astros in the West add further balance, with late-season form, bullpen stability, and schedule strength shaping trader consensus on which clubs can navigate the ALDS and ALCS. No single team has separated decisively heading into September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMLB: 2026 American League Champion
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
New York Yankees 25%
Tampa Bay Rays 20.4%
Boston Red Sox 13.8%
Chicago White Sox 9.4%
$4,245,336 Vol.
$4,245,336 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
New York Yankees
25%
Tampa Bay Rays
20%
Boston Red Sox
14%
Chicago White Sox
9%
Houston Astros
8%
Seattle Mariners
7%
Cleveland Guardians
4%
Toronto Blue Jays
3%
Texas Rangers
3%
Detroit Tigers
3%
Minnesota Twins
2%
Baltimore Orioles
1%
Los Angeles Angels
<1%
Athletics
<1%
Kansas City Royals
<1%
New York Yankees 25%
Tampa Bay Rays 20.4%
Boston Red Sox 13.8%
Chicago White Sox 9.4%
$4,245,336 Vol.
$4,245,336 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
New York Yankees
$56,676 Vol.
25%
Tampa Bay Rays
$395,447 Vol.
20%
Boston Red Sox
$56,134 Vol.
14%
Chicago White Sox
$252,323 Vol.
9%
Houston Astros
$781,625 Vol.
8%
Seattle Mariners
$36,777 Vol.
7%
Cleveland Guardians
$736,036 Vol.
4%
Toronto Blue Jays
$152,270 Vol.
3%
Texas Rangers
$27,053 Vol.
3%
Detroit Tigers
$117,009 Vol.
3%
Minnesota Twins
$253,394 Vol.
2%
Baltimore Orioles
$67,926 Vol.
1%
Los Angeles Angels
$309,202 Vol.
<1%
Athletics
$155,302 Vol.
<1%
Kansas City Royals
$848,162 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of implied probabilities for the 2026 AL pennant reflects intense parity across the American League, driven by the AL East's narrow standings gap where the Rays hold a slim lead at 76-53 over the Yankees at 73-56 and Red Sox at 70-59. Superior run differentials for New York and Boston underscore their offensive depth and pitching resilience despite recent roster challenges, including Yankees injuries. Contenders like the White Sox atop the Central and Astros in the West add further balance, with late-season form, bullpen stability, and schedule strength shaping trader consensus on which clubs can navigate the ALDS and ALCS. No single team has separated decisively heading into September.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$4,245,336End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of implied probabilities for the 2026 AL pennant reflects intense parity across the American League, driven by the AL East's narrow standings gap where the Rays hold a slim lead at 76-53 over the Yankees at 73-56 and Red Sox at 70-59. Superior run differentials for New York and Boston underscore their offensive depth and pitching resilience despite recent roster challenges, including Yankees injuries. Contenders like the White Sox atop the Central and Astros in the West add further balance, with late-season form, bullpen stability, and schedule strength shaping trader consensus on which clubs can navigate the ALDS and ALCS. No single team has separated decisively heading into September.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,245,336End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of implied probabilities for the 2026 AL pennant reflects intense parity across the American League, driven by the AL East's narrow standings gap where the Rays hold a slim lead at 76-53 over the Yankees at 73-56 and Red Sox at 70-59. Superior run differentials for New York and Boston underscore their offensive depth and pitching resilience despite recent roster challenges, including Yankees injuries. Contenders like the White Sox atop the Central and Astros in the West add further balance, with late-season form, bullpen stability, and schedule strength shaping trader consensus on which clubs can navigate the ALDS and ALCS. No single team has separated decisively heading into September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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