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Sports·Baseball

MLB: 2026 AL MVP

icon for MLB: 2026 AL MVP
Sports·Baseball

MLB: 2026 AL MVP

Yordan Alvarez 91.9%

Junior Caminero 3.2%

Bobby Witt Jr. 2.3%

Nick Kurtz <1%

Polymarket

$1,013,856 Vol.

Yordan Alvarez 91.9%

Junior Caminero 3.2%

Bobby Witt Jr. 2.3%

Nick Kurtz <1%

Polymarket

$1,013,856 Vol.

Yordan Alvarez

$32,393 Vol.

92%

Junior Caminero

$442 Vol.

3%

Bobby Witt Jr.

$21,072 Vol.

2%

Nick Kurtz

$4,721 Vol.

1%

Dillon Dingler

$490 Vol.

1%

Ben Rice

$2,749 Vol.

1%

Cal Raleigh

$558,607 Vol.

<1%

Gunnar Henderson

$26,586 Vol.

<1%

Jose Ramirez

$1,515 Vol.

<1%

Julio Rodriguez

$43,041 Vol.

<1%

Aaron Judge

$8,570 Vol.

<1%

Corey Seager

$310,733 Vol.

<1%

Mike Trout

$293 Vol.

<1%

Byron Buxton

$97 Vol.

<1%

Wilson Contreras

$134 Vol.

<1%

Munetaka Murakami

$97 Vol.

<1%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

$2,315 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yordan Alvarez's commanding statistical dominance has driven the overwhelming trader consensus in the 2026 AL MVP market, with the Astros slugger leading the league in batting average near .320, home runs with 36, and RBIs with 88 while posting an OPS above 1.05 and elite WAR totals. His consistent power-contact production and role in keeping Houston competitive have widened the gap over challengers like Junior Caminero, creating a near-lock perception reflected in implied probabilities exceeding 90%. Late-season developments such as an injury, prolonged slump, or unexpected surge from a contender could still shift outcomes, though the current margin leaves little room for realistic reversal.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,013,856
End Date
Nov 13, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Yordan Alvarez's commanding statistical dominance has driven the overwhelming trader consensus in the 2026 AL MVP market, with the Astros slugger leading the league in batting average near .320, home runs with 36, and RBIs with 88 while posting an OPS above 1.05 and elite WAR totals. His consistent power-contact production and role in keeping Houston competitive have widened the gap over challengers like Junior Caminero, creating a near-lock perception reflected in implied probabilities exceeding 90%. Late-season developments such as an injury, prolonged slump, or unexpected surge from a contender could still shift outcomes, though the current margin leaves little room for realistic reversal.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,013,856
End Date
Nov 13, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: 2026 AL MVP" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Yordan Alvarez" at 92%, followed by "Junior Caminero" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: 2026 AL MVP" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: 2026 AL MVP," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: 2026 AL MVP" is "Yordan Alvarez" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Junior Caminero" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: 2026 AL MVP" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.