**NATO has not faced an armed attack on member territory since 2001, and current conditions point to continued deterrence through the end of 2026.** At the July 2026 Ankara summit, allies reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 while addressing Russia’s long-term threat, sustaining military aid to Ukraine, and managing U.S. force posture adjustments and European defense spending increases toward the 5% GDP target. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East remain contained without direct strikes on NATO soil, and tensions such as those involving Greenland have not escalated to the threshold for collective defense. With only months remaining before 2027 and no verified armed attacks triggering the clause, trader consensus reflects the absence of imminent triggers alongside NATO’s established deterrence posture and recent alliance coordination.