Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, where he and his wife face narco-terrorism and related charges in the Southern District of New York; he has pleaded not guilty with trial proceedings scheduled to begin in June 2027. Trader assessments of release timing reflect ongoing judicial processes, including potential plea negotiations, appeals, or sentencing outcomes, alongside diplomatic pressures from Venezuela’s acting leadership under Delcy Rodríguez and international calls for his return. Key variables include U.S. executive branch decisions on foreign nationals in custody, any bilateral talks between Washington and Caracas on political transitions or prisoner exchanges, and developments in Venezuelan governance or opposition activities that could influence extradition or clemency scenarios. Scheduled court dates and broader U.S.-Venezuela relations within the resolution window continue to shape market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,687,890 Vol.
Jan 30, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,687,890 Vol.
December 31
$292,441 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, where he and his wife face narco-terrorism and related charges in the Southern District of New York; he has pleaded not guilty with trial proceedings scheduled to begin in June 2027. Trader assessments of release timing reflect ongoing judicial processes, including potential plea negotiations, appeals, or sentencing outcomes, alongside diplomatic pressures from Venezuela’s acting leadership under Delcy Rodríguez and international calls for his return. Key variables include U.S. executive branch decisions on foreign nationals in custody, any bilateral talks between Washington and Caracas on political transitions or prisoner exchanges, and developments in Venezuelan governance or opposition activities that could influence extradition or clemency scenarios. Scheduled court dates and broader U.S.-Venezuela relations within the resolution window continue to shape market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,687,890End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, where he and his wife face narco-terrorism and related charges in the Southern District of New York; he has pleaded not guilty with trial proceedings scheduled to begin in June 2027. Trader assessments of release timing reflect ongoing judicial processes, including potential plea negotiations, appeals, or sentencing outcomes, alongside diplomatic pressures from Venezuela’s acting leadership under Delcy Rodríguez and international calls for his return. Key variables include U.S. executive branch decisions on foreign nationals in custody, any bilateral talks between Washington and Caracas on political transitions or prisoner exchanges, and developments in Venezuelan governance or opposition activities that could influence extradition or clemency scenarios. Scheduled court dates and broader U.S.-Venezuela relations within the resolution window continue to shape market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,687,890End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas, where he and his wife face narco-terrorism and related charges in the Southern District of New York; he has pleaded not guilty with trial proceedings scheduled to begin in June 2027. Trader assessments of release timing reflect ongoing judicial processes, including potential plea negotiations, appeals, or sentencing outcomes, alongside diplomatic pressures from Venezuela’s acting leadership under Delcy Rodríguez and international calls for his return. Key variables include U.S. executive branch decisions on foreign nationals in custody, any bilateral talks between Washington and Caracas on political transitions or prisoner exchanges, and developments in Venezuelan governance or opposition activities that could influence extradition or clemency scenarios. Scheduled court dates and broader U.S.-Venezuela relations within the resolution window continue to shape market positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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