US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, prompting Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president under a temporary-absence framework that has since been extended. Core Chavista institutions, military command structures, and National Assembly leadership under her brother Jorge Rodríguez have remained intact, enabling her to adjust the cabinet, pursue oil-sector engagement with US firms, and secure sanctions relief while maintaining continuity with the prior regime. US recognition and cooperation have reinforced this position ahead of the end of 2026, sidelining exiled opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. Scenarios that could alter the trajectory include a sudden shift in US policy, internal fractures within security forces, or renewed opposition mobilization capable of forcing earlier elections or a broader transition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDelcy Rodríguez 91%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
Dinorah Figuera 1.2%
Pete Hegseth <1%
$371,582 Vol.
$371,582 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
91%
María Corina Machado
3%
Dinorah Figuera
1%
Pete Hegseth
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Dan Caine
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Nicolás Maduro
1%
No Head of State
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 91%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
Dinorah Figuera 1.2%
Pete Hegseth <1%
$371,582 Vol.
$371,582 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
$89,858 Vol.
91%
María Corina Machado
$52,368 Vol.
3%
Dinorah Figuera
$4,243 Vol.
1%
Pete Hegseth
$2,786 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$5,960 Vol.
1%
Dan Caine
$3,098 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$3,500 Vol.
1%
Nicolás Maduro
$4,156 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$66,886 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$8,193 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$68,019 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$42,101 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$2,684 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$3,393 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$7,128 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$7,209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, prompting Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president under a temporary-absence framework that has since been extended. Core Chavista institutions, military command structures, and National Assembly leadership under her brother Jorge Rodríguez have remained intact, enabling her to adjust the cabinet, pursue oil-sector engagement with US firms, and secure sanctions relief while maintaining continuity with the prior regime. US recognition and cooperation have reinforced this position ahead of the end of 2026, sidelining exiled opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. Scenarios that could alter the trajectory include a sudden shift in US policy, internal fractures within security forces, or renewed opposition mobilization capable of forcing earlier elections or a broader transition.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Volume
$371,582End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, prompting Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president under a temporary-absence framework that has since been extended. Core Chavista institutions, military command structures, and National Assembly leadership under her brother Jorge Rodríguez have remained intact, enabling her to adjust the cabinet, pursue oil-sector engagement with US firms, and secure sanctions relief while maintaining continuity with the prior regime. US recognition and cooperation have reinforced this position ahead of the end of 2026, sidelining exiled opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. Scenarios that could alter the trajectory include a sudden shift in US policy, internal fractures within security forces, or renewed opposition mobilization capable of forcing earlier elections or a broader transition.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$371,582End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, prompting Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president under a temporary-absence framework that has since been extended. Core Chavista institutions, military command structures, and National Assembly leadership under her brother Jorge Rodríguez have remained intact, enabling her to adjust the cabinet, pursue oil-sector engagement with US firms, and secure sanctions relief while maintaining continuity with the prior regime. US recognition and cooperation have reinforced this position ahead of the end of 2026, sidelining exiled opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. Scenarios that could alter the trajectory include a sudden shift in US policy, internal fractures within security forces, or renewed opposition mobilization capable of forcing earlier elections or a broader transition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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