**Market-implied odds for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 2026 Official Cash Rate decision show a clear trader consensus favoring stability or modest tightening.** The 61.5% probability of no change and 39.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike reflect the RBNZ’s July 2026 unanimous 25bp increase to 2.50%, which began a gradual removal of stimulus amid inflation at 4.1% year-over-year in the June quarter—well above the 1–3% target band, though driven largely by fuel prices with core measures remaining more contained. Recent central bank communications emphasize data dependence and a likely further reduction in accommodation to reach a neutral rate around 3%, supported by strengthening growth and lingering medium-term price pressures. Economists at ANZ and others anticipate possible additional 25bp moves in September and October, while market pricing and the latest Survey of Expectations indicate moderating inflation outlooks that temper the pace. The closely balanced probabilities between hold and hike underscore uncertainty around incoming data, the September Monetary Policy Statement, and global factors, with downside risks to larger moves remaining low given the RBNZ’s measured approach.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 62%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
$11,780 Vol.
$11,780 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
$11,780 Vol.
$11,780 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$554 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$447 Vol.
1%
No change
$6,953 Vol.
62%
25 bps increase
$3,416 Vol.
40%
50+ bps increase
$409 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Market-implied odds for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 2026 Official Cash Rate decision show a clear trader consensus favoring stability or modest tightening.** The 61.5% probability of no change and 39.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike reflect the RBNZ’s July 2026 unanimous 25bp increase to 2.50%, which began a gradual removal of stimulus amid inflation at 4.1% year-over-year in the June quarter—well above the 1–3% target band, though driven largely by fuel prices with core measures remaining more contained.
Recent central bank communications emphasize data dependence and a likely further reduction in accommodation to reach a neutral rate around 3%, supported by strengthening growth and lingering medium-term price pressures. Economists at ANZ and others anticipate possible additional 25bp moves in September and October, while market pricing and the latest Survey of Expectations indicate moderating inflation outlooks that temper the pace. The closely balanced probabilities between hold and hike underscore uncertainty around incoming data, the September Monetary Policy Statement, and global factors, with downside risks to larger moves remaining low given the RBNZ’s measured approach.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$11,780End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Market-implied odds for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 2026 Official Cash Rate decision show a clear trader consensus favoring stability or modest tightening.** The 61.5% probability of no change and 39.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike reflect the RBNZ’s July 2026 unanimous 25bp increase to 2.50%, which began a gradual removal of stimulus amid inflation at 4.1% year-over-year in the June quarter—well above the 1–3% target band, though driven largely by fuel prices with core measures remaining more contained.
Recent central bank communications emphasize data dependence and a likely further reduction in accommodation to reach a neutral rate around 3%, supported by strengthening growth and lingering medium-term price pressures. Economists at ANZ and others anticipate possible additional 25bp moves in September and October, while market pricing and the latest Survey of Expectations indicate moderating inflation outlooks that temper the pace. The closely balanced probabilities between hold and hike underscore uncertainty around incoming data, the September Monetary Policy Statement, and global factors, with downside risks to larger moves remaining low given the RBNZ’s measured approach.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$11,780End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 2026 Official Cash Rate decision show a clear trader consensus favoring stability or modest tightening.** The 61.5% probability of no change and 39.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike reflect the RBNZ’s July 2026 unanimous 25bp increase to 2.50%, which began a gradual removal of stimulus amid inflation at 4.1% year-over-year in the June quarter—well above the 1–3% target band, though driven largely by fuel prices with core measures remaining more contained. Recent central bank communications emphasize data dependence and a likely further reduction in accommodation to reach a neutral rate around 3%, supported by strengthening growth and lingering medium-term price pressures. Economists at ANZ and others anticipate possible additional 25bp moves in September and October, while market pricing and the latest Survey of Expectations indicate moderating inflation outlooks that temper the pace. The closely balanced probabilities between hold and hike underscore uncertainty around incoming data, the September Monetary Policy Statement, and global factors, with downside risks to larger moves remaining low given the RBNZ’s measured approach.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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