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icon for SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?

SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?

icon for SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?

SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?

56% chance
Polymarket
NEW
56% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has anchored trader expectations. Those cases ask whether the Second Amendment protects AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles that are in common use by law-abiding citizens, a question left unresolved after Bruen. With a 6-3 conservative majority and statements from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch signaling that such rifles likely qualify for protection, the Court appears poised to extend recent gun-rights precedents. Oral arguments are scheduled for the October 2026 term, with a decision expected by mid-2027. The modest 56.5% probability for invalidation reflects both the Court’s trajectory on similar issues and the possibility that Chief Justice Roberts or Justice Barrett could limit the scope of any ruling.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4
End Date
Aug 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to assault-weapons bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has anchored trader expectations. Those cases ask whether the Second Amendment protects AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles that are in common use by law-abiding citizens, a question left unresolved after Bruen. With a 6-3 conservative majority and statements from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch signaling that such rifles likely qualify for protection, the Court appears poised to extend recent gun-rights precedents. Oral arguments are scheduled for the October 2026 term, with a decision expected by mid-2027. The modest 56.5% probability for invalidation reflects both the Court’s trajectory on similar issues and the possibility that Chief Justice Roberts or Justice Barrett could limit the scope of any ruling.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$4
End Date
Aug 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 56% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 56¢, the market collectively assigns a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?" is 56% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.