**No Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, as reflected in the 77% trader consensus favoring that outcome.** The nine sitting justices have shown no confirmed plans to depart, with the oldest members—Clarence Thomas at 78 and Samuel Alito at 76—continuing to serve without announced retirements or reported health developments that would prompt a departure before year-end. Alito directly addressed speculation in August 2026 by confirming he intends to remain for at least another term, following an erroneous NPR report that briefly fueled retirement rumors earlier in the summer. Lifetime appointments under Article III provide no mandatory retirement age, so vacancies depend on voluntary action, incapacity, or other rare events. Recent reporting and public statements through mid-2026 indicate no strategic timing aligned with the current political calendar or other catalysts that would shift probabilities. This supports the market's assessment of limited near-term vacancy risk absent new developments.