**Clarence Thomas, the Supreme Court’s senior associate justice at age 78, has shown no public or private signals of planning to retire, with sources close to him stating in April 2026 that he does not intend to step down this year or in the immediate term.** Thomas has previously indicated interest in serving into the 2030s, consistent with his tenure since 1991 and patterns among long-serving justices. Recent speculation around conservative vacancies—tied to President Trump’s preference for appointments while Republicans hold Senate leverage ahead of the November 2026 midterms—has centered more on Justice Samuel Alito, who publicly confirmed plans to serve at least through the 2026-2027 term ending around June or July 2027. Thomas faces no reported health concerns or institutional pressures, and the absence of term limits or mandatory retirement for Article III judges leaves timing uncertain. Polymarket odds reflect this lack of catalysts, pricing near-term announcements (by September or December 2026) at single digits while assigning roughly even odds to a possible announcement by June 2027. Upcoming developments that could shift probabilities include the start of the new Court term in October 2026, midterm results affecting Senate control, or any direct statements from Thomas or the White House.