The May 2026 reports of a Justice Department inquiry into potential perjury by E. Jean Carroll during 2022 deposition testimony about litigation funding from Reid Hoffman’s nonprofit sparked trader attention on federal charging prospects by year-end. Subsequent statements from the Northern District of Illinois U.S. Attorney explicitly denied any criminal investigation targeting Carroll herself, shifting focus to the nonprofit and related arrangements. The Supreme Court’s June and August 2026 refusals to review Trump’s appeals preserved the $5 million verdict and cleared escrow payments, while the separate $83 million defamation judgment remains under appeal. These developments, combined with standard federal charging timelines and the absence of indictments or warrants through mid-August, underpin current market pricing that assigns moderate probability to charges before December 31, 2026.