Recent developments in South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary, including Lindsey Graham’s death and the ensuing special primary runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman set for August 25, have heightened GOP base engagement ahead of the November general election against Democrat Annie Andrews. With the seat rated safely Republican and polls showing a consistent 7–9 point GOP lead, overall turnout hinges on Republican mobilization versus typical midterm drop-off patterns. Historical state turnout in non-presidential cycles has ranged from roughly 40–45 percent of eligible voters, while recent early voting data from the runoff shows solid but not exceptional participation concentrated in key counties. Traders’ near-even pricing across turnout bins underscores uncertainty over whether party efforts, candidate visibility, or external factors will push total ballots above or below the 1.8–2.0 million range typical for comparable cycles.