Diplomatic normalization with Israel remains anchored in the expansion of the Abraham Accords framework, with U.S. policy under the current administration explicitly linking Saudi civil nuclear cooperation to Riyadh’s formal recognition. As of mid-2026, approximately 163–169 UN members recognize Israel, leaving roughly two dozen holdouts concentrated in the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation, including Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and several others that maintain no diplomatic ties. Recent momentum includes restorations of relations with Bolivia, Colombia, and Venezuela after earlier severances, alongside Kazakhstan’s accession to the accords and continued Syrian security talks. Saudi recognition by year-end would mark the most consequential shift, while Indonesia faces domestic political and regional constraints that have so far blocked progress despite periodic trade and interest-office discussions. Trader assessments hinge on the pace of U.S.-brokered deals versus entrenched opposition tied to the Palestinian issue and bilateral disputes.