**Syria's transitional framework under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has produced a durable leadership structure that traders view as unlikely to collapse before the end of 2026.** Appointed interim president in January 2025 for a mandated five-year period, al-Sharaa has consolidated authority through cabinet formation, limited parliamentary elections in October 2025, and integration deals with Kurdish-led SDF forces following early 2026 clashes. Recent diplomatic momentum reinforces this position: he met U.S. President Trump at the White House in November 2025, pursued a security agreement with Israel in July 2026, and engaged Arab states and international institutions on reconstruction and sanctions relief. While sectarian incidents and external pressures persist, no verified challenges from within the transitional government, armed factions, or major opposition have materialized to threaten his tenure by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. The 91.5% "No" pricing reflects trader consensus that these institutional and diplomatic stabilizers will keep al-Sharaa in office through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
9% chance
$69,740 Vol.
$69,740 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
9% chance
$69,740 Vol.
$69,740 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Syria's transitional framework under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has produced a durable leadership structure that traders view as unlikely to collapse before the end of 2026.** Appointed interim president in January 2025 for a mandated five-year period, al-Sharaa has consolidated authority through cabinet formation, limited parliamentary elections in October 2025, and integration deals with Kurdish-led SDF forces following early 2026 clashes.
Recent diplomatic momentum reinforces this position: he met U.S. President Trump at the White House in November 2025, pursued a security agreement with Israel in July 2026, and engaged Arab states and international institutions on reconstruction and sanctions relief. While sectarian incidents and external pressures persist, no verified challenges from within the transitional government, armed factions, or major opposition have materialized to threaten his tenure by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. The 91.5% "No" pricing reflects trader consensus that these institutional and diplomatic stabilizers will keep al-Sharaa in office through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:58 PM ET
Volume
$69,740End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Syria's transitional framework under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has produced a durable leadership structure that traders view as unlikely to collapse before the end of 2026.** Appointed interim president in January 2025 for a mandated five-year period, al-Sharaa has consolidated authority through cabinet formation, limited parliamentary elections in October 2025, and integration deals with Kurdish-led SDF forces following early 2026 clashes.
Recent diplomatic momentum reinforces this position: he met U.S. President Trump at the White House in November 2025, pursued a security agreement with Israel in July 2026, and engaged Arab states and international institutions on reconstruction and sanctions relief. While sectarian incidents and external pressures persist, no verified challenges from within the transitional government, armed factions, or major opposition have materialized to threaten his tenure by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. The 91.5% "No" pricing reflects trader consensus that these institutional and diplomatic stabilizers will keep al-Sharaa in office through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$69,740End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Syria's transitional framework under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has produced a durable leadership structure that traders view as unlikely to collapse before the end of 2026.** Appointed interim president in January 2025 for a mandated five-year period, al-Sharaa has consolidated authority through cabinet formation, limited parliamentary elections in October 2025, and integration deals with Kurdish-led SDF forces following early 2026 clashes. Recent diplomatic momentum reinforces this position: he met U.S. President Trump at the White House in November 2025, pursued a security agreement with Israel in July 2026, and engaged Arab states and international institutions on reconstruction and sanctions relief. While sectarian incidents and external pressures persist, no verified challenges from within the transitional government, armed factions, or major opposition have materialized to threaten his tenure by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. The 91.5% "No" pricing reflects trader consensus that these institutional and diplomatic stabilizers will keep al-Sharaa in office through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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