Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon’s president by parliament in January 2025 with broad cross-factional and international support, ending a prolonged vacancy and positioning him at the center of efforts to enforce the state monopoly on arms, implement the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, and attract external aid for the Lebanese Armed Forces. As of August 2026 he remains actively engaged in these priorities, including recent high-level diplomacy with the United States aimed at securing Israeli withdrawals and long-term stability. Lebanese presidential terms run six years, and no constitutional challenges, resignation signals, or domestic political crises have emerged that would trigger an early exit before year-end. Traders therefore assign only a low single-digit probability to his departure by December 31, 2026, reflecting the short time since his election and the absence of near-term catalysts for removal.