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Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$733,937 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$733,937 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$59,611 Vol.

10%

icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$353,641 Vol.

10%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$17,132 Vol.

10%

icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$110,128 Vol.

9%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$15,957 Vol.

7%

icon for Syria

Syria

$20,561 Vol.

7%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$12,362 Vol.

7%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$35,076 Vol.

5%

icon for North Korea

North Korea

$19,226 Vol.

5%

icon for Iran

Iran

$15,304 Vol.

5%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$9,243 Vol.

5%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$12,080 Vol.

4%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$9,387 Vol.

4%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$19,477 Vol.

4%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$12,383 Vol.

4%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$12,369 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic recognition of Israel stands at 169 UN member states as of early 2026, leaving a small group of non-recognizers concentrated among certain Muslim-majority nations and a handful of others such as Cuba and North Korea. Recent activity includes Venezuela’s renewal of consular ties in August 2026 and Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland, though these moves have not shifted the broader pattern of holdouts. Ongoing regional tensions, including West Bank settlement expansions and Gaza-related diplomacy, continue to link new recognitions to progress on Palestinian statehood or normalization frameworks like the Abraham Accords. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia or Lebanon face structural barriers tied to domestic politics and multilateral positions, while statements from countries including Pakistan rule out near-term changes absent a comprehensive settlement. Scheduled forums such as the UN General Assembly provide periodic opportunities for announcements, yet trader assessments reflect limited near-term movement given historical precedent and current geopolitical constraints.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$733,937
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic recognition of Israel stands at 169 UN member states as of early 2026, leaving a small group of non-recognizers concentrated among certain Muslim-majority nations and a handful of others such as Cuba and North Korea. Recent activity includes Venezuela’s renewal of consular ties in August 2026 and Israel’s December 2025 recognition of Somaliland, though these moves have not shifted the broader pattern of holdouts. Ongoing regional tensions, including West Bank settlement expansions and Gaza-related diplomacy, continue to link new recognitions to progress on Palestinian statehood or normalization frameworks like the Abraham Accords. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia or Lebanon face structural barriers tied to domestic politics and multilateral positions, while statements from countries including Pakistan rule out near-term changes absent a comprehensive settlement. Scheduled forums such as the UN General Assembly provide periodic opportunities for announcements, yet trader assessments reflect limited near-term movement given historical precedent and current geopolitical constraints.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$733,937
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Saudi Arabia" at 10%, followed by "Venezuela" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" has generated $733.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is "Saudi Arabia" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Venezuela" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.