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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Alexandre Pantoja 49%

Joshua Van 48%

Manel Kape 2.1%

Tim Elliott <1%

Polymarket

$1,180,569 Vol.

Alexandre Pantoja 49%

Joshua Van 48%

Manel Kape 2.1%

Tim Elliott <1%

Polymarket

$1,180,569 Vol.

Alexandre Pantoja

$8,827 Vol.

49%

Joshua Van

$6,527 Vol.

48%

Manel Kape

$3,406 Vol.

2%

Tim Elliott

$305,814 Vol.

<1%

Amir Albazi

$789,753 Vol.

<1%

Asu Almabayev

$58,556 Vol.

<1%

Tatsuro Taira

$1,849 Vol.

<1%

Kyoji Horiguchi

$1,470 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Moreno

$1,426 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Royval

$1,189 Vol.

<1%

Steve Erceg

$1,752 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).The upcoming rematch between current champion Joshua Van and former titleholder Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 331 on September 19 stands as the pivotal factor keeping the end-of-2026 flyweight title market nearly even. Van claimed the belt via first-round injury stoppage at UFC 323 in late 2025, but Pantoja’s extensive championship experience, grappling pedigree, and recovery timeline create substantial uncertainty around the outcome and any immediate follow-up defenses. With both fighters positioned as clear frontrunners and the rest of the division—led by Manel Kape, Tatsuro Taira, and others—trading at single-digit implied probabilities, trader consensus reflects the high variance inherent in a title fight between an established veteran and a rising young champion still building his reign.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$1,180,569
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).The upcoming rematch between current champion Joshua Van and former titleholder Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 331 on September 19 stands as the pivotal factor keeping the end-of-2026 flyweight title market nearly even. Van claimed the belt via first-round injury stoppage at UFC 323 in late 2025, but Pantoja’s extensive championship experience, grappling pedigree, and recovery timeline create substantial uncertainty around the outcome and any immediate follow-up defenses. With both fighters positioned as clear frontrunners and the rest of the division—led by Manel Kape, Tatsuro Taira, and others—trading at single-digit implied probabilities, trader consensus reflects the high variance inherent in a title fight between an established veteran and a rising young champion still building his reign.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$1,180,569
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alexandre Pantoja" at 49%, followed by "Joshua Van" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Alexandre Pantoja" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joshua Van" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.