Recent developments have lifted the implied probability of another sitting MP joining One Nation to 60.5 percent. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals established a precedent, while Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly weighed a similar move in May 2026 after the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed in the Farrer byelection. One Nation’s stronger polling performance since the 2025 federal election, combined with internal Coalition tensions and preference-deal discussions, has encouraged trader expectations of further defections before year-end. These factors outweigh the party’s history of internal exits and keep the market leaning toward an additional switch in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?
Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?
0% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
0% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments have lifted the implied probability of another sitting MP joining One Nation to 60.5 percent. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals established a precedent, while Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly weighed a similar move in May 2026 after the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed in the Farrer byelection. One Nation’s stronger polling performance since the 2025 federal election, combined with internal Coalition tensions and preference-deal discussions, has encouraged trader expectations of further defections before year-end. These factors outweigh the party’s history of internal exits and keep the market leaning toward an additional switch in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ET
Volume
$172End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments have lifted the implied probability of another sitting MP joining One Nation to 60.5 percent. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals established a precedent, while Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly weighed a similar move in May 2026 after the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed in the Farrer byelection. One Nation’s stronger polling performance since the 2025 federal election, combined with internal Coalition tensions and preference-deal discussions, has encouraged trader expectations of further defections before year-end. These factors outweigh the party’s history of internal exits and keep the market leaning toward an additional switch in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Australian House of Representatives announces that he or she will join Pauline Hanson’s One Nation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement that the individual will transition from independent status or another political party to One Nation will qualify only if the individual is a sitting MP in the Australian House of Representatives at the time of the announcement.
This market will resolve based on a qualifying announcement made within the specified timeframe. Once such an announcement is made, whether or when the individual subsequently joins One Nation will not affect the market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant MP or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$172End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments have lifted the implied probability of another sitting MP joining One Nation to 60.5 percent. Barnaby Joyce’s December 2025 defection from the Nationals established a precedent, while Nationals MP Colin Boyce publicly weighed a similar move in May 2026 after the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed in the Farrer byelection. One Nation’s stronger polling performance since the 2025 federal election, combined with internal Coalition tensions and preference-deal discussions, has encouraged trader expectations of further defections before year-end. These factors outweigh the party’s history of internal exits and keep the market leaning toward an additional switch in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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