The closely contested 53.5% implied probability for Democrats winning all four core Senate races—Georgia (Ossoff defense), Michigan (open seat), North Carolina (open Republican seat), and Maine (Collins challenge)—reflects tight polling averages and Cook Political Report toss-up ratings across these battlegrounds. Recent primaries have finalized nominees without major disruptions, while generic ballot leads for Democrats and competitive fundraising have kept each race within reach amid a challenging map requiring net gains of at least four seats. Trader consensus prices in the coordination risk across suburban turnout, independent voters, and state-specific dynamics in Trump-won territory. Late-cycle polls, candidate events, or shifts in national conditions before November 3 could alter the balance by boosting or eroding margins in one or more of these contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
54% chance
$20,373 Vol.
$20,373 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
54% chance
$20,373 Vol.
$20,373 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 53.5% implied probability for Democrats winning all four core Senate races—Georgia (Ossoff defense), Michigan (open seat), North Carolina (open Republican seat), and Maine (Collins challenge)—reflects tight polling averages and Cook Political Report toss-up ratings across these battlegrounds. Recent primaries have finalized nominees without major disruptions, while generic ballot leads for Democrats and competitive fundraising have kept each race within reach amid a challenging map requiring net gains of at least four seats. Trader consensus prices in the coordination risk across suburban turnout, independent voters, and state-specific dynamics in Trump-won territory. Late-cycle polls, candidate events, or shifts in national conditions before November 3 could alter the balance by boosting or eroding margins in one or more of these contests.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$20,373End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 53.5% implied probability for Democrats winning all four core Senate races—Georgia (Ossoff defense), Michigan (open seat), North Carolina (open Republican seat), and Maine (Collins challenge)—reflects tight polling averages and Cook Political Report toss-up ratings across these battlegrounds. Recent primaries have finalized nominees without major disruptions, while generic ballot leads for Democrats and competitive fundraising have kept each race within reach amid a challenging map requiring net gains of at least four seats. Trader consensus prices in the coordination risk across suburban turnout, independent voters, and state-specific dynamics in Trump-won territory. Late-cycle polls, candidate events, or shifts in national conditions before November 3 could alter the balance by boosting or eroding margins in one or more of these contests.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$20,373End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 53.5% implied probability for Democrats winning all four core Senate races—Georgia (Ossoff defense), Michigan (open seat), North Carolina (open Republican seat), and Maine (Collins challenge)—reflects tight polling averages and Cook Political Report toss-up ratings across these battlegrounds. Recent primaries have finalized nominees without major disruptions, while generic ballot leads for Democrats and competitive fundraising have kept each race within reach amid a challenging map requiring net gains of at least four seats. Trader consensus prices in the coordination risk across suburban turnout, independent voters, and state-specific dynamics in Trump-won territory. Late-cycle polls, candidate events, or shifts in national conditions before November 3 could alter the balance by boosting or eroding margins in one or more of these contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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