Cait Conley secured a commanding lead in the June 23, 2026, NY-17 Democratic primary, finishing with roughly 50% of the vote against Beth Davidson’s 30% share and far smaller totals for the remaining candidates. Pre-primary polling consistently showed Conley ahead by double digits, bolstered by her profile as a West Point graduate and Army veteran with national security experience, along with endorsements from New Dems and other party-aligned groups. Fundraising and voter outreach in key counties further consolidated support in a crowded field. Trader consensus on a margin exceeding 15 points reflects these verified results. The only realistic paths to a narrower outcome would involve substantial certification errors or a successful recount that alters hundreds of votes, though the reported gap makes such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-17 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
NY-17 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Conley 15%+ 98.6%
Conley 10–15% <1%
Conley 5–10% <1%
Conley <5% <1%
$57,834 Vol.
$57,834 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Conley 15%+
Yes
Conley 10–15%
No
Conley 5–10%
No
Conley <5%
No
Davidson wins
No
Conley 15%+ 98.6%
Conley 10–15% <1%
Conley 5–10% <1%
Conley <5% <1%
$57,834 Vol.
$57,834 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Conley 15%+
$22,007 Vol.
Yes
Conley 10–15%
$23,378 Vol.
No
Conley 5–10%
$5,033 Vol.
No
Conley <5%
$4,532 Vol.
No
Davidson wins
$2,883 Vol.
No
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cait Conley secured a commanding lead in the June 23, 2026, NY-17 Democratic primary, finishing with roughly 50% of the vote against Beth Davidson’s 30% share and far smaller totals for the remaining candidates. Pre-primary polling consistently showed Conley ahead by double digits, bolstered by her profile as a West Point graduate and Army veteran with national security experience, along with endorsements from New Dems and other party-aligned groups. Fundraising and voter outreach in key counties further consolidated support in a crowded field. Trader consensus on a margin exceeding 15 points reflects these verified results. The only realistic paths to a narrower outcome would involve substantial certification errors or a successful recount that alters hundreds of votes, though the reported gap makes such shifts improbable.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ET
Volume
$57,834End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cait Conley secured a commanding lead in the June 23, 2026, NY-17 Democratic primary, finishing with roughly 50% of the vote against Beth Davidson’s 30% share and far smaller totals for the remaining candidates. Pre-primary polling consistently showed Conley ahead by double digits, bolstered by her profile as a West Point graduate and Army veteran with national security experience, along with endorsements from New Dems and other party-aligned groups. Fundraising and voter outreach in key counties further consolidated support in a crowded field. Trader consensus on a margin exceeding 15 points reflects these verified results. The only realistic paths to a narrower outcome would involve substantial certification errors or a successful recount that alters hundreds of votes, though the reported gap makes such shifts improbable.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-17 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$57,834End Date
Jun 23, 2026Market Opened
Jun 19, 2026, 11:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Cait Conley secured a commanding lead in the June 23, 2026, NY-17 Democratic primary, finishing with roughly 50% of the vote against Beth Davidson’s 30% share and far smaller totals for the remaining candidates. Pre-primary polling consistently showed Conley ahead by double digits, bolstered by her profile as a West Point graduate and Army veteran with national security experience, along with endorsements from New Dems and other party-aligned groups. Fundraising and voter outreach in key counties further consolidated support in a crowded field. Trader consensus on a margin exceeding 15 points reflects these verified results. The only realistic paths to a narrower outcome would involve substantial certification errors or a successful recount that alters hundreds of votes, though the reported gap makes such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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