Legal and procedural barriers make revocation of Zohran Mamdani’s U.S. citizenship before 2027 highly improbable, anchoring the 96.5% trader consensus on “No.” Mamdani, naturalized in 2018 after arriving from Uganda as a child and now serving as New York City mayor, faces no active denaturalization proceedings despite 2025 Republican calls for DOJ investigation over alleged nondisclosure of political affiliations. Courts require proof of material fraud in the original application, a standard unmet by public claims to date. The short remaining window before 2027 further limits scope for new cases to reach final judgment. Rare shifts could occur via sudden DOJ priority escalation or undisclosed evidence surfacing, though historical precedent shows such politically motivated efforts rarely succeed quickly.