**Tensions in China-Japan relations since late 2025 have shaped trader views on whether Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will hold another in-person meeting by year-end 2026.** Their only prior summit occurred on the sidelines of the October 2025 APEC meeting in South Korea, shortly after Takaichi took office. Subsequent remarks by Takaichi linking a potential Taiwan contingency to Japan’s security legislation triggered a diplomatic crisis, with Beijing criticizing the comments as interference in internal affairs and responding with economic measures such as rare-earth export limits, tourism curbs, and diplomatic isolation efforts. No bilateral leader-level meeting has occurred at subsequent forums, including the November 2025 G20. Japan has signaled interest in renewed dialogue to stabilize ties and address shared regional concerns, while China has conditioned progress on addressing its core positions. The November 2026 APEC summit hosted by China stands out as the most immediate scheduled multilateral venue that could facilitate another encounter, though the depth of the current impasse and unresolved Taiwan-related frictions continue to weigh on probabilities. Traders price the December 31, 2026 resolution date near even odds, reflecting uncertainty over whether diplomatic calendars or external pressures will produce a breakthrough before year-end.