Recent primary results show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly five points in Alaska’s August 18 top-four contest, with final tallies expected near 160,000 votes once all absentee and mail ballots are processed. This level reflects elevated engagement in a closely watched Senate matchup but remains below historical midterm benchmarks, consistent with trader emphasis on the sub-230,000 bracket. Ranked-choice procedures and a crowded field of minor candidates have produced modest fragmentation, while late-counting dynamics and comparisons to the lower-turnout 2024 House primary keep multiple turnout ranges competitive. No major late developments have yet shifted the distribution of probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated290K-305K 40%
245K-260K 39%
275K-290K 38%
305K-320K 37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<230K
34%
230K-245K
36%
245K-260K
39%
260K-275K
29%
275K-290K
38%
290K-305K
40%
305K-320K
37%
320K+
33%
290K-305K 40%
245K-260K 39%
275K-290K 38%
305K-320K 37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<230K
$0 Vol.
34%
230K-245K
$0 Vol.
36%
245K-260K
$0 Vol.
39%
260K-275K
$0 Vol.
29%
275K-290K
$0 Vol.
38%
290K-305K
$0 Vol.
40%
305K-320K
$0 Vol.
37%
320K+
$0 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent primary results show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly five points in Alaska’s August 18 top-four contest, with final tallies expected near 160,000 votes once all absentee and mail ballots are processed. This level reflects elevated engagement in a closely watched Senate matchup but remains below historical midterm benchmarks, consistent with trader emphasis on the sub-230,000 bracket. Ranked-choice procedures and a crowded field of minor candidates have produced modest fragmentation, while late-counting dynamics and comparisons to the lower-turnout 2024 House primary keep multiple turnout ranges competitive. No major late developments have yet shifted the distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent primary results show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly five points in Alaska’s August 18 top-four contest, with final tallies expected near 160,000 votes once all absentee and mail ballots are processed. This level reflects elevated engagement in a closely watched Senate matchup but remains below historical midterm benchmarks, consistent with trader emphasis on the sub-230,000 bracket. Ranked-choice procedures and a crowded field of minor candidates have produced modest fragmentation, while late-counting dynamics and comparisons to the lower-turnout 2024 House primary keep multiple turnout ranges competitive. No major late developments have yet shifted the distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent primary results show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly five points in Alaska’s August 18 top-four contest, with final tallies expected near 160,000 votes once all absentee and mail ballots are processed. This level reflects elevated engagement in a closely watched Senate matchup but remains below historical midterm benchmarks, consistent with trader emphasis on the sub-230,000 bracket. Ranked-choice procedures and a crowded field of minor candidates have produced modest fragmentation, while late-counting dynamics and comparisons to the lower-turnout 2024 House primary keep multiple turnout ranges competitive. No major late developments have yet shifted the distribution of probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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