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icon for Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?
Politics·Ballot Initiative

Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?

icon for Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?
Politics·Ballot Initiative

Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?

86% chance
Polymarket
NEW
86% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona's Republican-controlled legislature referred Proposition 317 to the November 3, 2026 ballot via House Concurrent Resolution 2055 in June 2025. The measure declares drug cartels terrorist organizations under state law, defines them to include groups involved in human smuggling or drug trafficking, and directs the Arizona Department of Homeland Security to use its full authority against such threats while clarifying it does not affect asylum claims. It builds directly on the 2024 voter approval of Proposition 314, which expanded state border enforcement powers amid persistent concerns over fentanyl flows along the southern border. Official ballot language was finalized in August 2026 with no reported legal challenges or competing initiatives, positioning the proposal for a straightforward popular vote in a state that has repeatedly backed related criminal justice and immigration statutes. Trader consensus on an 85.5% chance of passage reflects this legislative path and historical voter patterns on similar measures.

Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 7:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona's Republican-controlled legislature referred Proposition 317 to the November 3, 2026 ballot via House Concurrent Resolution 2055 in June 2025. The measure declares drug cartels terrorist organizations under state law, defines them to include groups involved in human smuggling or drug trafficking, and directs the Arizona Department of Homeland Security to use its full authority against such threats while clarifying it does not affect asylum claims. It builds directly on the 2024 voter approval of Proposition 314, which expanded state border enforcement powers amid persistent concerns over fentanyl flows along the southern border. Official ballot language was finalized in August 2026 with no reported legal challenges or competing initiatives, positioning the proposal for a straightforward popular vote in a state that has repeatedly backed related criminal justice and immigration statutes. Trader consensus on an 85.5% chance of passage reflects this legislative path and historical voter patterns on similar measures.

Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 7:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 86% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 86¢, the market collectively assigns a 86% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 25, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?" is 86% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 86% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.