Recent back-to-back 25 basis point hikes by the Bank of Korea, lifting the benchmark rate to 3.00% in August 2026, have anchored trader expectations for the November decision around a narrow contest between no change and another modest tightening. Persistent inflation above the 2% target—August CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year, with core measures also elevated—combined with upgraded 2026 growth forecasts to 3.3% driven by semiconductor exports and domestic demand, supports the 43.5% implied probability of a further 25 basis point increase. At the same time, Governor Shin Hyun-song’s emphasis on a gradual pace and the need to monitor incoming data on inflation, GDP, and financial stability risks has kept the 55.5% odds for holding rates slightly ahead. With the board’s dot plot clustering around a 3.25% terminal rate by year-end and limited scope for cuts or aggressive hikes priced in, market-implied odds reflect the balance between preemptive tightening to contain price pressures and caution ahead of the October assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 55%
25 bps hike 44%
25 bps cut 2.4%
50+ bps cut 1.6%
$12,099 Vol.
$12,099 Vol.
Nov 25, 2026
50+ bps cut
2%
25 bps cut
26%
No Change
55%
25 bps hike
44%
50+ bps hike
1%
No Change 55%
25 bps hike 44%
25 bps cut 2.4%
50+ bps cut 1.6%
$12,099 Vol.
$12,099 Vol.
Nov 25, 2026
50+ bps cut
$410 Vol.
2%
25 bps cut
$378 Vol.
26%
No Change
$6,617 Vol.
55%
25 bps hike
$4,320 Vol.
44%
50+ bps hike
$375 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.Recent back-to-back 25 basis point hikes by the Bank of Korea, lifting the benchmark rate to 3.00% in August 2026, have anchored trader expectations for the November decision around a narrow contest between no change and another modest tightening. Persistent inflation above the 2% target—August CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year, with core measures also elevated—combined with upgraded 2026 growth forecasts to 3.3% driven by semiconductor exports and domestic demand, supports the 43.5% implied probability of a further 25 basis point increase. At the same time, Governor Shin Hyun-song’s emphasis on a gradual pace and the need to monitor incoming data on inflation, GDP, and financial stability risks has kept the 55.5% odds for holding rates slightly ahead. With the board’s dot plot clustering around a 3.25% terminal rate by year-end and limited scope for cuts or aggressive hikes priced in, market-implied odds reflect the balance between preemptive tightening to contain price pressures and caution ahead of the October assessment.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$12,099End Date
Nov 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.Recent back-to-back 25 basis point hikes by the Bank of Korea, lifting the benchmark rate to 3.00% in August 2026, have anchored trader expectations for the November decision around a narrow contest between no change and another modest tightening. Persistent inflation above the 2% target—August CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year, with core measures also elevated—combined with upgraded 2026 growth forecasts to 3.3% driven by semiconductor exports and domestic demand, supports the 43.5% implied probability of a further 25 basis point increase. At the same time, Governor Shin Hyun-song’s emphasis on a gradual pace and the need to monitor incoming data on inflation, GDP, and financial stability risks has kept the 55.5% odds for holding rates slightly ahead. With the board’s dot plot clustering around a 3.25% terminal rate by year-end and limited scope for cuts or aggressive hikes priced in, market-implied odds reflect the balance between preemptive tightening to contain price pressures and caution ahead of the October assessment.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Volume
$12,099End Date
Nov 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent back-to-back 25 basis point hikes by the Bank of Korea, lifting the benchmark rate to 3.00% in August 2026, have anchored trader expectations for the November decision around a narrow contest between no change and another modest tightening. Persistent inflation above the 2% target—August CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year, with core measures also elevated—combined with upgraded 2026 growth forecasts to 3.3% driven by semiconductor exports and domestic demand, supports the 43.5% implied probability of a further 25 basis point increase. At the same time, Governor Shin Hyun-song’s emphasis on a gradual pace and the need to monitor incoming data on inflation, GDP, and financial stability risks has kept the 55.5% odds for holding rates slightly ahead. With the board’s dot plot clustering around a 3.25% terminal rate by year-end and limited scope for cuts or aggressive hikes priced in, market-implied odds reflect the balance between preemptive tightening to contain price pressures and caution ahead of the October assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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