**Tanveer Shahnawaz holds a commanding lead in the Beaches—East York federal by-election market at 97.3% implied probability, reflecting the riding’s long-standing Liberal dominance and his position as the party’s nominated candidate.** The seat became vacant after incumbent Nate Erskine-Smith resigned, prompting a by-election set for August 31, 2026. Shahnawaz, who served nearly a decade as Erskine-Smith’s constituency office manager and secured the Liberal nomination on July 18, benefits from established local networks and continuity with the prior MP’s strong 67.75% result in the previous general election. Other confirmed candidates from the Conservative, NDP, Green, and smaller parties face structural disadvantages in this Toronto riding. Trader consensus prices in the high likelihood of a Liberal hold absent major unforeseen events, such as a significant late scandal or turnout anomaly, that could shift momentum before advance polls close and election day arrives.