Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced proposals to reform capital gains taxation, including inflation indexing of basis and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, but none have advanced to enactment as of late August 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 extended the existing 0/15/20 percent long-term rate structure rather than lowering top rates, while recent reconciliation discussions and housing initiatives have focused elsewhere. With the legislative calendar compressed ahead of midterms, a narrow window remains for any rate reduction. Traders assign an 85.5 percent probability that no federal capital gains rate cut will take effect by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
14% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced proposals to reform capital gains taxation, including inflation indexing of basis and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, but none have advanced to enactment as of late August 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 extended the existing 0/15/20 percent long-term rate structure rather than lowering top rates, while recent reconciliation discussions and housing initiatives have focused elsewhere. With the legislative calendar compressed ahead of midterms, a narrow window remains for any rate reduction. Traders assign an 85.5 percent probability that no federal capital gains rate cut will take effect by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$207End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced proposals to reform capital gains taxation, including inflation indexing of basis and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, but none have advanced to enactment as of late August 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 extended the existing 0/15/20 percent long-term rate structure rather than lowering top rates, while recent reconciliation discussions and housing initiatives have focused elsewhere. With the legislative calendar compressed ahead of midterms, a narrow window remains for any rate reduction. Traders assign an 85.5 percent probability that no federal capital gains rate cut will take effect by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$207End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced proposals to reform capital gains taxation, including inflation indexing of basis and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, but none have advanced to enactment as of late August 2026. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 extended the existing 0/15/20 percent long-term rate structure rather than lowering top rates, while recent reconciliation discussions and housing initiatives have focused elsewhere. With the legislative calendar compressed ahead of midterms, a narrow window remains for any rate reduction. Traders assign an 85.5 percent probability that no federal capital gains rate cut will take effect by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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