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Economy·Fed Rates

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?

icon for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?
Economy·Fed Rates

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$485 Vol.

Polymarket

Below 4.52%

$374 Vol.

65%

Below 4.49%

$64 Vol.

61%

Below 4.46%

$0 Vol.

51%

Below 4.43%

$0 Vol.

51%

Below 4.40%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.37%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.32%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.27%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.20%

$46 Vol.

36%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strong U.S. employment data, with August job gains nearly triple consensus expectations, has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 60%, supporting higher 5-year Treasury yields near 4.54-4.55%. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 5% of GDP, with public debt above $40 trillion, combined with heavy corporate bond issuance for AI infrastructure, have elevated term premiums and reduced demand for intermediate-duration Treasuries. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases will clarify inflation momentum, while the Fed's neutral rate discussions highlight structural upward pressure on yields from capital demand and the absence of a prior safety premium. These dynamics suggest limited scope for sharp yield declines absent clear disinflation signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$485
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strong U.S. employment data, with August job gains nearly triple consensus expectations, has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 60%, supporting higher 5-year Treasury yields near 4.54-4.55%. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 5% of GDP, with public debt above $40 trillion, combined with heavy corporate bond issuance for AI infrastructure, have elevated term premiums and reduced demand for intermediate-duration Treasuries. Upcoming August CPI and PPI releases will clarify inflation momentum, while the Fed's neutral rate discussions highlight structural upward pressure on yields from capital demand and the absence of a prior safety premium. These dynamics suggest limited scope for sharp yield declines absent clear disinflation signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$485
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 8:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Below 4.52%" at 65%, followed by "Below 4.49%" at 61%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?" is "Below 4.52%" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Below 4.49%" at 61%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.