Kristi Noem’s removal as Homeland Security Secretary in March 2026 by President Trump, following congressional hearings and Democratic impeachment resolutions introduced in January over immigration enforcement tactics, agent-involved shootings, oversight disputes, and contracting practices, largely explains the market’s strong consensus against impeachment this year. With Republicans controlling both chambers, those partisan articles stalled in committee and never advanced to a floor vote. Subsequent developments, including Noem’s transition to a new envoy role and a ceremonial statue unveiling in South Dakota in August, have further reduced any institutional pressure or procedural pathway for removal proceedings against her as a former official. Trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of renewed action in the remaining months of 2026 absent major new catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKristi Noem impeached in 2026?
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
8% chance
$20,175 Vol.
$20,175 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8% chance
$20,175 Vol.
$20,175 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Kristi Noem’s removal as Homeland Security Secretary in March 2026 by President Trump, following congressional hearings and Democratic impeachment resolutions introduced in January over immigration enforcement tactics, agent-involved shootings, oversight disputes, and contracting practices, largely explains the market’s strong consensus against impeachment this year. With Republicans controlling both chambers, those partisan articles stalled in committee and never advanced to a floor vote. Subsequent developments, including Noem’s transition to a new envoy role and a ceremonial statue unveiling in South Dakota in August, have further reduced any institutional pressure or procedural pathway for removal proceedings against her as a former official. Trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of renewed action in the remaining months of 2026 absent major new catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Jan 19, 2026, 3:19 PM ET
Volume
$20,175End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Kristi Noem’s removal as Homeland Security Secretary in March 2026 by President Trump, following congressional hearings and Democratic impeachment resolutions introduced in January over immigration enforcement tactics, agent-involved shootings, oversight disputes, and contracting practices, largely explains the market’s strong consensus against impeachment this year. With Republicans controlling both chambers, those partisan articles stalled in committee and never advanced to a floor vote. Subsequent developments, including Noem’s transition to a new envoy role and a ceremonial statue unveiling in South Dakota in August, have further reduced any institutional pressure or procedural pathway for removal proceedings against her as a former official. Trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of renewed action in the remaining months of 2026 absent major new catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$20,175End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kristi Noem’s removal as Homeland Security Secretary in March 2026 by President Trump, following congressional hearings and Democratic impeachment resolutions introduced in January over immigration enforcement tactics, agent-involved shootings, oversight disputes, and contracting practices, largely explains the market’s strong consensus against impeachment this year. With Republicans controlling both chambers, those partisan articles stalled in committee and never advanced to a floor vote. Subsequent developments, including Noem’s transition to a new envoy role and a ceremonial statue unveiling in South Dakota in August, have further reduced any institutional pressure or procedural pathway for removal proceedings against her as a former official. Trader pricing reflects the low likelihood of renewed action in the remaining months of 2026 absent major new catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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