**The Democratic Party of Korea’s commanding majority in the National Assembly (161 of 300 seats) continues to block any realistic path to impeachment of President Lee Jae-myung before 2027.** An impeachment motion requires support from at least 200 lawmakers (two-thirds), a threshold the opposition People Power Party cannot reach on its own. A June 2026 public petition demanding Lee’s removal over suspended criminal trials and alleged conflicts with ongoing judicial proceedings gathered more than 100,000 signatures, but the ruling party’s control of the relevant committees and plenary process rendered it symbolic. Recent political friction—including opposition criticism of Lee’s judicial appointment influence, debates over resuming his pre-presidency trials, and a modest dip in approval ratings to the mid-40s in some mid-2026 polls—has not altered the legislative arithmetic. Lee’s administration has focused on anti-corruption initiatives and legislative priorities such as revisions to prosecutorial authority, further consolidating ruling-party cohesion. No scheduled elections or procedural changes before 2027 are expected to shift the seat balance enough to enable passage. Traders therefore assign an 89.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the structural barrier posed by the current assembly composition and the absence of any near-term catalyst capable of overcoming it.