Skip to main content
icon for Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout

icon for Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout

1.5M-1.6M 47%

1.6M-1.7M 41%

1.2M-1.3M 37%

1.4M-1.5M 33%

Polymarket
NEW

1.5M-1.6M 47%

1.6M-1.7M 41%

1.2M-1.3M 37%

1.4M-1.5M 33%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.1M

$0 Vol.

31%

1.1M-1.2M

$0 Vol.

31%

1.2M-1.3M

$0 Vol.

37%

1.3M-1.4M

$0 Vol.

30%

1.4M-1.5M

$0 Vol.

33%

1.5M-1.6M

$0 Vol.

47%

1.6M-1.7M

$0 Vol.

41%

1.7M+

$0 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus centers on the 1.6M-1.7M turnout range as the leading outcome for Louisiana’s November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate general election between Republican Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis.** This positioning reflects expectations for a solid but not exceptional midterm participation rate among roughly 3 million registered voters. Recent primary and runoff voting showed notably low engagement—around 28% in the May open primary and just 17% in the June party runoffs—setting a baseline for subdued interest in an uncompetitive general election rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. Historical midterm Senate turnout in the state has hovered near 40-45% in comparable cycles, though the shift to closed party primaries and slight Republican registration edge could modestly boost participation relative to 2022 levels. With the race lacking national attention or tight polling margins, traders appear to price in limited mobilization on either side absent major late-cycle developments.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus centers on the 1.6M-1.7M turnout range as the leading outcome for Louisiana’s November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate general election between Republican Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis.** This positioning reflects expectations for a solid but not exceptional midterm participation rate among roughly 3 million registered voters. Recent primary and runoff voting showed notably low engagement—around 28% in the May open primary and just 17% in the June party runoffs—setting a baseline for subdued interest in an uncompetitive general election rated Solid Republican by multiple forecasters. Historical midterm Senate turnout in the state has hovered near 40-45% in comparable cycles, though the shift to closed party primaries and slight Republican registration edge could modestly boost participation relative to 2022 levels. With the race lacking national attention or tight polling margins, traders appear to price in limited mobilization on either side absent major late-cycle developments.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be between 9,600,000 and 10,000,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be between 9,600,000 and 10,000,000?

46%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 750,000 and 825,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 750,000 and 825,000?

46%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,400,000 and 1,500,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,400,000 and 1,500,000?

41%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.5M-1.6M" at 47%, followed by "1.6M-1.7M" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout" is "1.5M-1.6M" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.6M-1.7M" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.