Meta's market cap currently sits near $1.4 trillion following its Q2 2026 results, which showed 28% revenue growth to $60.8 billion driven by advertising but missed EPS estimates amid $2.4 billion in one-time charges and narrowed full-year capex guidance of $130-145 billion for AI data centers and infrastructure. Traders assign the highest implied probability (72%) to the $1.25-1.50T range at end-September because near-term catalysts appear limited, with ongoing large language model development and Meta AI adoption offset by persistent spending pressures that have weighed on margins and free cash flow. The $1.00-1.75T buckets cluster around current levels, reflecting uncertainty over whether ad momentum can offset elevated expenses before the next earnings cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.25-$1.50T 70%
$2.00-$2.25T 35.9%
$1.00-$1.25T 33.3%
$1.75-$2.00T 31.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
1%
$1.00-$1.25T
33%
$1.25-$1.50T
70%
$1.50-$1.75T
35%
$1.75-$2.00T
31%
$2.00-$2.25T
36%
$2.25T+
26%
$1.25-$1.50T 70%
$2.00-$2.25T 35.9%
$1.00-$1.25T 33.3%
$1.75-$2.00T 31.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
$412 Vol.
1%
$1.00-$1.25T
$40 Vol.
33%
$1.25-$1.50T
$1,318 Vol.
70%
$1.50-$1.75T
$180 Vol.
35%
$1.75-$2.00T
$270 Vol.
31%
$2.00-$2.25T
$40 Vol.
36%
$2.25T+
$40 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Meta's market cap currently sits near $1.4 trillion following its Q2 2026 results, which showed 28% revenue growth to $60.8 billion driven by advertising but missed EPS estimates amid $2.4 billion in one-time charges and narrowed full-year capex guidance of $130-145 billion for AI data centers and infrastructure. Traders assign the highest implied probability (72%) to the $1.25-1.50T range at end-September because near-term catalysts appear limited, with ongoing large language model development and Meta AI adoption offset by persistent spending pressures that have weighed on margins and free cash flow. The $1.00-1.75T buckets cluster around current levels, reflecting uncertainty over whether ad momentum can offset elevated expenses before the next earnings cycle.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,301End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Meta's market cap currently sits near $1.4 trillion following its Q2 2026 results, which showed 28% revenue growth to $60.8 billion driven by advertising but missed EPS estimates amid $2.4 billion in one-time charges and narrowed full-year capex guidance of $130-145 billion for AI data centers and infrastructure. Traders assign the highest implied probability (72%) to the $1.25-1.50T range at end-September because near-term catalysts appear limited, with ongoing large language model development and Meta AI adoption offset by persistent spending pressures that have weighed on margins and free cash flow. The $1.00-1.75T buckets cluster around current levels, reflecting uncertainty over whether ad momentum can offset elevated expenses before the next earnings cycle.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$2,301End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta's market cap currently sits near $1.4 trillion following its Q2 2026 results, which showed 28% revenue growth to $60.8 billion driven by advertising but missed EPS estimates amid $2.4 billion in one-time charges and narrowed full-year capex guidance of $130-145 billion for AI data centers and infrastructure. Traders assign the highest implied probability (72%) to the $1.25-1.50T range at end-September because near-term catalysts appear limited, with ongoing large language model development and Meta AI adoption offset by persistent spending pressures that have weighed on margins and free cash flow. The $1.00-1.75T buckets cluster around current levels, reflecting uncertainty over whether ad momentum can offset elevated expenses before the next earnings cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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