Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 has driven recent trader sentiment by posting scores of 46–62% on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards as of mid-to-late August 2026, placing it third behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 while surpassing several GPT-5 variants. HLE is a 2,500-question expert-vetted benchmark spanning graduate-level mathematics, sciences, and humanities, deliberately resistant to saturation. Meta’s proprietary series has narrowed the gap with frontier closed models through iterative reasoning improvements and higher-compute configurations, though results vary by evaluation setup (text-only vs. tools-enabled). Remaining 2026 catalysts include potential Muse Spark refinements, new Meta releases, and continued scaling before the December 31 resolution deadline. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that Meta can reach or exceed 55–60% thresholds given current momentum, while acknowledging uncertainty from faster competitor advances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,280 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
48%
60%+
27%
65%+
16%
70%+
8%
$21,280 Vol.
55%+
$14,030 Vol.
48%
60%+
$2,179 Vol.
27%
65%+
$3,517 Vol.
16%
70%+
$1,555 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 has driven recent trader sentiment by posting scores of 46–62% on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards as of mid-to-late August 2026, placing it third behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 while surpassing several GPT-5 variants. HLE is a 2,500-question expert-vetted benchmark spanning graduate-level mathematics, sciences, and humanities, deliberately resistant to saturation. Meta’s proprietary series has narrowed the gap with frontier closed models through iterative reasoning improvements and higher-compute configurations, though results vary by evaluation setup (text-only vs. tools-enabled). Remaining 2026 catalysts include potential Muse Spark refinements, new Meta releases, and continued scaling before the December 31 resolution deadline. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that Meta can reach or exceed 55–60% thresholds given current momentum, while acknowledging uncertainty from faster competitor advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,280End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 has driven recent trader sentiment by posting scores of 46–62% on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards as of mid-to-late August 2026, placing it third behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 while surpassing several GPT-5 variants. HLE is a 2,500-question expert-vetted benchmark spanning graduate-level mathematics, sciences, and humanities, deliberately resistant to saturation. Meta’s proprietary series has narrowed the gap with frontier closed models through iterative reasoning improvements and higher-compute configurations, though results vary by evaluation setup (text-only vs. tools-enabled). Remaining 2026 catalysts include potential Muse Spark refinements, new Meta releases, and continued scaling before the December 31 resolution deadline. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that Meta can reach or exceed 55–60% thresholds given current momentum, while acknowledging uncertainty from faster competitor advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$21,280End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 has driven recent trader sentiment by posting scores of 46–62% on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards as of mid-to-late August 2026, placing it third behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 while surpassing several GPT-5 variants. HLE is a 2,500-question expert-vetted benchmark spanning graduate-level mathematics, sciences, and humanities, deliberately resistant to saturation. Meta’s proprietary series has narrowed the gap with frontier closed models through iterative reasoning improvements and higher-compute configurations, though results vary by evaluation setup (text-only vs. tools-enabled). Remaining 2026 catalysts include potential Muse Spark refinements, new Meta releases, and continued scaling before the December 31 resolution deadline. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that Meta can reach or exceed 55–60% thresholds given current momentum, while acknowledging uncertainty from faster competitor advances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
74%
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
80%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
88%
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