Google’s prolonged delay of the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—drives the 51.5% market-implied probability of no Pro-tier release by November 1. As of mid-August, the model remains limited to partner testing without a public timeline, while Google has shipped multiple updated Flash variants, including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13, and confirmed it has begun pre-training the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders view the absence of firm commitments or general availability announcements, combined with an accelerated cadence focused on lighter models, as evidence that the next full Pro release faces significant remaining technical and competitive hurdles before late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by November 1 52%
October 12–October 18 12%
October 5–October 11 10%
September 21–September 27 8.7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Prior to August 31
5%
August 31–September 6
3%
September 7–September 13
3%
September 14–September 20
2%
September 21–September 27
9%
September 28–October 4
3%
October 5–October 11
10%
October 12–October 18
12%
October 19–October 25
3%
October 26–November 1
5%
No release by November 1
52%
No release by November 1 52%
October 12–October 18 12%
October 5–October 11 10%
September 21–September 27 8.7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Prior to August 31
$159 Vol.
5%
August 31–September 6
$92 Vol.
3%
September 7–September 13
$677 Vol.
3%
September 14–September 20
$92 Vol.
2%
September 21–September 27
$114 Vol.
9%
September 28–October 4
$67 Vol.
3%
October 5–October 11
$95 Vol.
10%
October 12–October 18
$116 Vol.
12%
October 19–October 25
$72 Vol.
3%
October 26–November 1
$106 Vol.
5%
No release by November 1
$4,593 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s prolonged delay of the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—drives the 51.5% market-implied probability of no Pro-tier release by November 1. As of mid-August, the model remains limited to partner testing without a public timeline, while Google has shipped multiple updated Flash variants, including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13, and confirmed it has begun pre-training the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders view the absence of firm commitments or general availability announcements, combined with an accelerated cadence focused on lighter models, as evidence that the next full Pro release faces significant remaining technical and competitive hurdles before late 2026.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Volume
$6,181End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s prolonged delay of the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—drives the 51.5% market-implied probability of no Pro-tier release by November 1. As of mid-August, the model remains limited to partner testing without a public timeline, while Google has shipped multiple updated Flash variants, including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13, and confirmed it has begun pre-training the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders view the absence of firm commitments or general availability announcements, combined with an accelerated cadence focused on lighter models, as evidence that the next full Pro release faces significant remaining technical and competitive hurdles before late 2026.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,181End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s prolonged delay of the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship—teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July—drives the 51.5% market-implied probability of no Pro-tier release by November 1. As of mid-August, the model remains limited to partner testing without a public timeline, while Google has shipped multiple updated Flash variants, including Gemini 3.7 Flash on August 13, and confirmed it has begun pre-training the larger Gemini 4 frontier model. Traders view the absence of firm commitments or general availability announcements, combined with an accelerated cadence focused on lighter models, as evidence that the next full Pro release faces significant remaining technical and competitive hurdles before late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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