Meta leads trader consensus for the #3 spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) at 52.5% implied probability due to sustained momentum in open-weight large language model releases and developer ecosystem adoption. Recent launches like Meta’s Muse Glimmer and related open models emphasize accessibility on consumer hardware, rapid iteration, and broad integration that boost controllable generation metrics. Intense competition from Alibaba’s Qwen series and Moonshot’s Kimi variants, which close performance gaps on reasoning and agentic benchmarks while offering open weights, keeps multiple labs clustered near even odds and underscores narrow margins. Google trails on infrastructure scaling, while frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic sit lower as traders anticipate the September 30 snapshot will favor accessible, rapidly updated open models amid quick Chinese AI progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 53%
Alibaba 25%
Google 16%
OpenAI 5.3%
$56,259 Vol.
$56,259 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
53%
Alibaba
25%
16%
OpenAI
5%
Moonshot
3%
Baidu
2%
Anthropic
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 53%
Alibaba 25%
Google 16%
OpenAI 5.3%
$56,259 Vol.
$56,259 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$9,093 Vol.
53%
Alibaba
$6,843 Vol.
25%
$3,957 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$1,373 Vol.
5%
Moonshot
$1,600 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$1,031 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$19,826 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$966 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$1,076 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$986 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$957 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,085 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,018 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,154 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,009 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$818 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$829 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$799 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$480 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$700 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta leads trader consensus for the #3 spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) at 52.5% implied probability due to sustained momentum in open-weight large language model releases and developer ecosystem adoption. Recent launches like Meta’s Muse Glimmer and related open models emphasize accessibility on consumer hardware, rapid iteration, and broad integration that boost controllable generation metrics. Intense competition from Alibaba’s Qwen series and Moonshot’s Kimi variants, which close performance gaps on reasoning and agentic benchmarks while offering open weights, keeps multiple labs clustered near even odds and underscores narrow margins. Google trails on infrastructure scaling, while frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic sit lower as traders anticipate the September 30 snapshot will favor accessible, rapidly updated open models amid quick Chinese AI progress.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$56,259End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta leads trader consensus for the #3 spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) at 52.5% implied probability due to sustained momentum in open-weight large language model releases and developer ecosystem adoption. Recent launches like Meta’s Muse Glimmer and related open models emphasize accessibility on consumer hardware, rapid iteration, and broad integration that boost controllable generation metrics. Intense competition from Alibaba’s Qwen series and Moonshot’s Kimi variants, which close performance gaps on reasoning and agentic benchmarks while offering open weights, keeps multiple labs clustered near even odds and underscores narrow margins. Google trails on infrastructure scaling, while frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic sit lower as traders anticipate the September 30 snapshot will favor accessible, rapidly updated open models amid quick Chinese AI progress.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$56,259End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta leads trader consensus for the #3 spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) at 52.5% implied probability due to sustained momentum in open-weight large language model releases and developer ecosystem adoption. Recent launches like Meta’s Muse Glimmer and related open models emphasize accessibility on consumer hardware, rapid iteration, and broad integration that boost controllable generation metrics. Intense competition from Alibaba’s Qwen series and Moonshot’s Kimi variants, which close performance gaps on reasoning and agentic benchmarks while offering open weights, keeps multiple labs clustered near even odds and underscores narrow margins. Google trails on infrastructure scaling, while frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic sit lower as traders anticipate the September 30 snapshot will favor accessible, rapidly updated open models amid quick Chinese AI progress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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