Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, drive the 97% market-implied odds by leading agent-specific leaderboards and benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and arena.ai Agent Arena evaluations. Recent mid-August research on multi-agent systems demonstrated superior conflict resolution and long-horizon orchestration, while July releases enhanced computer-use tools, context handling, and production reliability for autonomous workflows. Traders view these confirmed capabilities as decisive ahead of the August 31 resolution, with no rival releases expected to shift rankings. A late benchmark surge from OpenAI or Google could theoretically narrow the gap, though current gaps in agentic consistency and multi-agent performance make such reversals unlikely within the remaining week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 97.0%
OpenAI 1.8%
Z.ai <1%
Moonshot <1%
$116,578 Vol.
$116,578 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.0%
OpenAI 1.8%
Z.ai <1%
Moonshot <1%
$116,578 Vol.
$116,578 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$20,990 Vol.
97%
OpenAI
$28,227 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$3,986 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$6,472 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$6,167 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$6,901 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$6,166 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$6,881 Vol.
<1%
$6,936 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$10,009 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$5,223 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,303 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$515 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,833 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,388 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,557 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$503 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$521 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, drive the 97% market-implied odds by leading agent-specific leaderboards and benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and arena.ai Agent Arena evaluations. Recent mid-August research on multi-agent systems demonstrated superior conflict resolution and long-horizon orchestration, while July releases enhanced computer-use tools, context handling, and production reliability for autonomous workflows. Traders view these confirmed capabilities as decisive ahead of the August 31 resolution, with no rival releases expected to shift rankings. A late benchmark surge from OpenAI or Google could theoretically narrow the gap, though current gaps in agentic consistency and multi-agent performance make such reversals unlikely within the remaining week.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$116,578End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, drive the 97% market-implied odds by leading agent-specific leaderboards and benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and arena.ai Agent Arena evaluations. Recent mid-August research on multi-agent systems demonstrated superior conflict resolution and long-horizon orchestration, while July releases enhanced computer-use tools, context handling, and production reliability for autonomous workflows. Traders view these confirmed capabilities as decisive ahead of the August 31 resolution, with no rival releases expected to shift rankings. A late benchmark surge from OpenAI or Google could theoretically narrow the gap, though current gaps in agentic consistency and multi-agent performance make such reversals unlikely within the remaining week.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$116,578End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants, drive the 97% market-implied odds by leading agent-specific leaderboards and benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and arena.ai Agent Arena evaluations. Recent mid-August research on multi-agent systems demonstrated superior conflict resolution and long-horizon orchestration, while July releases enhanced computer-use tools, context handling, and production reliability for autonomous workflows. Traders view these confirmed capabilities as decisive ahead of the August 31 resolution, with no rival releases expected to shift rankings. A late benchmark surge from OpenAI or Google could theoretically narrow the gap, though current gaps in agentic consistency and multi-agent performance make such reversals unlikely within the remaining week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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