Moonshot AI has driven the strong 81% market-implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end-August 2026 through its rapid sequence of open-weight releases and dedicated agent products. The July launch of Kimi K3, the largest open-source model at 2.8 trillion parameters, delivered competitive long-horizon coding, multimodal reasoning, and agentic performance against leading U.S. systems, while the June release of Kimi Work introduced a local desktop agent with swarm scaling to hundreds of sub-agents for real browser and file tasks. These moves, building on earlier Kimi K2.x iterations optimized for tool use and workflows, have positioned Moonshot as the clearest challenger in agent-specific benchmarks and developer adoption. OpenAI trails at 13% amid its closed-model focus, with other labs showing limited recent agent-specific catalysts. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated agent capabilities and open ecosystem momentum over overall model leadership.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 81.8%
OpenAI 13%
Z.ai 5.5%
Anthropic <1%
$17,375 Vol.
$17,375 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
82%
OpenAI
13%
Z.ai
6%
Anthropic
1%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Moonshot 81.8%
OpenAI 13%
Z.ai 5.5%
Anthropic <1%
$17,375 Vol.
$17,375 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Moonshot
$3,119 Vol.
82%
OpenAI
$3,774 Vol.
13%
Z.ai
$1,478 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$1,134 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,036 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$315 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$669 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$378 Vol.
<1%
$363 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$612 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$489 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$622 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$954 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$592 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$323 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$450 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$336 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$733 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI has driven the strong 81% market-implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end-August 2026 through its rapid sequence of open-weight releases and dedicated agent products. The July launch of Kimi K3, the largest open-source model at 2.8 trillion parameters, delivered competitive long-horizon coding, multimodal reasoning, and agentic performance against leading U.S. systems, while the June release of Kimi Work introduced a local desktop agent with swarm scaling to hundreds of sub-agents for real browser and file tasks. These moves, building on earlier Kimi K2.x iterations optimized for tool use and workflows, have positioned Moonshot as the clearest challenger in agent-specific benchmarks and developer adoption. OpenAI trails at 13% amid its closed-model focus, with other labs showing limited recent agent-specific catalysts. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated agent capabilities and open ecosystem momentum over overall model leadership.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$17,375End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI has driven the strong 81% market-implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end-August 2026 through its rapid sequence of open-weight releases and dedicated agent products. The July launch of Kimi K3, the largest open-source model at 2.8 trillion parameters, delivered competitive long-horizon coding, multimodal reasoning, and agentic performance against leading U.S. systems, while the June release of Kimi Work introduced a local desktop agent with swarm scaling to hundreds of sub-agents for real browser and file tasks. These moves, building on earlier Kimi K2.x iterations optimized for tool use and workflows, have positioned Moonshot as the clearest challenger in agent-specific benchmarks and developer adoption. OpenAI trails at 13% amid its closed-model focus, with other labs showing limited recent agent-specific catalysts. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated agent capabilities and open ecosystem momentum over overall model leadership.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$17,375End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI has driven the strong 81% market-implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end-August 2026 through its rapid sequence of open-weight releases and dedicated agent products. The July launch of Kimi K3, the largest open-source model at 2.8 trillion parameters, delivered competitive long-horizon coding, multimodal reasoning, and agentic performance against leading U.S. systems, while the June release of Kimi Work introduced a local desktop agent with swarm scaling to hundreds of sub-agents for real browser and file tasks. These moves, building on earlier Kimi K2.x iterations optimized for tool use and workflows, have positioned Moonshot as the clearest challenger in agent-specific benchmarks and developer adoption. OpenAI trails at 13% amid its closed-model focus, with other labs showing limited recent agent-specific catalysts. Traders appear to weigh demonstrated agent capabilities and open ecosystem momentum over overall model leadership.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions