**Anthropic dominates trader sentiment with a 90.5% market-implied probability for the best AI model by end of September 2026.** Its Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5 (July 24 release), and Fable 5 variants currently lead independent leaderboards such as BenchLM’s BenchAlign v5 and agentic coding evaluations like SWE-bench Verified, Frontier-Bench, and ARC-AGI-3, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and other frontier models on reasoning, tool use, and knowledge work. This positioning reflects sustained gains from mid-2026 releases emphasizing efficient agentic performance at competitive pricing. Realistic challenges include an unexpected competitive release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before resolution that narrows the demonstrated capability gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.1%
Google 2.9%
SpaceXAI 1.2%
$445,719 Vol.
$445,719 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
5%
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.1%
Google 2.9%
SpaceXAI 1.2%
$445,719 Vol.
$445,719 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$57,478 Vol.
91%
OpenAI
$24,681 Vol.
5%
$23,344 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$24,995 Vol.
1%
Meta
$17,517 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$21,752 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$25,152 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$22,373 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$23,516 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$16,727 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$24,181 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$15,736 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$16,753 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$19,033 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$16,539 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,148 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$14,320 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$14,486 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$18,597 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$12,889 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$21,501 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic dominates trader sentiment with a 90.5% market-implied probability for the best AI model by end of September 2026.** Its Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5 (July 24 release), and Fable 5 variants currently lead independent leaderboards such as BenchLM’s BenchAlign v5 and agentic coding evaluations like SWE-bench Verified, Frontier-Bench, and ARC-AGI-3, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and other frontier models on reasoning, tool use, and knowledge work. This positioning reflects sustained gains from mid-2026 releases emphasizing efficient agentic performance at competitive pricing. Realistic challenges include an unexpected competitive release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before resolution that narrows the demonstrated capability gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$445,719End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Anthropic dominates trader sentiment with a 90.5% market-implied probability for the best AI model by end of September 2026.** Its Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5 (July 24 release), and Fable 5 variants currently lead independent leaderboards such as BenchLM’s BenchAlign v5 and agentic coding evaluations like SWE-bench Verified, Frontier-Bench, and ARC-AGI-3, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and other frontier models on reasoning, tool use, and knowledge work. This positioning reflects sustained gains from mid-2026 releases emphasizing efficient agentic performance at competitive pricing. Realistic challenges include an unexpected competitive release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before resolution that narrows the demonstrated capability gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$445,719End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic dominates trader sentiment with a 90.5% market-implied probability for the best AI model by end of September 2026.** Its Claude Mythos 5, Opus 5 (July 24 release), and Fable 5 variants currently lead independent leaderboards such as BenchLM’s BenchAlign v5 and agentic coding evaluations like SWE-bench Verified, Frontier-Bench, and ARC-AGI-3, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and other frontier models on reasoning, tool use, and knowledge work. This positioning reflects sustained gains from mid-2026 releases emphasizing efficient agentic performance at competitive pricing. Realistic challenges include an unexpected competitive release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before resolution that narrows the demonstrated capability gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions