Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic with an 88.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of September, reflecting its recent releases and benchmark leadership in large language model capabilities. This positioning stems from demonstrated advances in reasoning, safety alignment, and specialized features that have outpaced rivals in independent evaluations. In contrast, Google and OpenAI hold only 6.0% and 4.3% market-implied odds, consistent with more incremental updates amid intense competition. Numerous smaller players clustered near 50% highlight ongoing uncertainty about potential surprises from emerging labs, while lower odds for others underscore barriers in scaling and developer adoption. New benchmark results or announcements before the resolution date remain key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 89%
Google 5.6%
OpenAI 4.3%
Meta 1.7%
$45,544 Vol.
$45,544 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
89%
6%
OpenAI
4%
Meta
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
1%
Tencent
1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 5.6%
OpenAI 4.3%
Meta 1.7%
$45,544 Vol.
$45,544 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$23,079 Vol.
89%
$2,123 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$1,615 Vol.
4%
Meta
$1,548 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$1,312 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$1,465 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$2,387 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$1,102 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,343 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$736 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$792 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$931 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$945 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic with an 88.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of September, reflecting its recent releases and benchmark leadership in large language model capabilities. This positioning stems from demonstrated advances in reasoning, safety alignment, and specialized features that have outpaced rivals in independent evaluations. In contrast, Google and OpenAI hold only 6.0% and 4.3% market-implied odds, consistent with more incremental updates amid intense competition. Numerous smaller players clustered near 50% highlight ongoing uncertainty about potential surprises from emerging labs, while lower odds for others underscore barriers in scaling and developer adoption. New benchmark results or announcements before the resolution date remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$45,544End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic with an 88.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of September, reflecting its recent releases and benchmark leadership in large language model capabilities. This positioning stems from demonstrated advances in reasoning, safety alignment, and specialized features that have outpaced rivals in independent evaluations. In contrast, Google and OpenAI hold only 6.0% and 4.3% market-implied odds, consistent with more incremental updates amid intense competition. Numerous smaller players clustered near 50% highlight ongoing uncertainty about potential surprises from emerging labs, while lower odds for others underscore barriers in scaling and developer adoption. New benchmark results or announcements before the resolution date remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$45,544End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic with an 88.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of September, reflecting its recent releases and benchmark leadership in large language model capabilities. This positioning stems from demonstrated advances in reasoning, safety alignment, and specialized features that have outpaced rivals in independent evaluations. In contrast, Google and OpenAI hold only 6.0% and 4.3% market-implied odds, consistent with more incremental updates amid intense competition. Numerous smaller players clustered near 50% highlight ongoing uncertainty about potential surprises from emerging labs, while lower odds for others underscore barriers in scaling and developer adoption. New benchmark results or announcements before the resolution date remain key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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