Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have driven the 96% market-implied probability by topping the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and multiple agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, including strong ARC-AGI-3 results and consistent leadership on LMArena Elo scores as of late August 2026. These models deliver frontier-level performance in long-horizon tasks, tool use, and production workflows at competitive pricing, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and other labs across verified third-party evaluations. With resolution only days away, traders see limited room for reversal absent an unannounced last-minute update from competitors, though the inherent pace of model iterations leaves modest uncertainty around exact leaderboard snapshots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 96.1%
OpenAI 2.1%
Google <1%
Xiaomi <1%
$28,008 Vol.
$28,008 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
96%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.1%
OpenAI 2.1%
Google <1%
Xiaomi <1%
$28,008 Vol.
$28,008 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$7,927 Vol.
96%
OpenAI
$2,871 Vol.
2%
$2,068 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$719 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$609 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,300 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,082 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,168 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,881 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$643 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,215 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$985 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$774 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$738 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have driven the 96% market-implied probability by topping the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and multiple agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, including strong ARC-AGI-3 results and consistent leadership on LMArena Elo scores as of late August 2026. These models deliver frontier-level performance in long-horizon tasks, tool use, and production workflows at competitive pricing, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and other labs across verified third-party evaluations. With resolution only days away, traders see limited room for reversal absent an unannounced last-minute update from competitors, though the inherent pace of model iterations leaves modest uncertainty around exact leaderboard snapshots.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$28,008End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have driven the 96% market-implied probability by topping the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and multiple agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, including strong ARC-AGI-3 results and consistent leadership on LMArena Elo scores as of late August 2026. These models deliver frontier-level performance in long-horizon tasks, tool use, and production workflows at competitive pricing, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and other labs across verified third-party evaluations. With resolution only days away, traders see limited room for reversal absent an unannounced last-minute update from competitors, though the inherent pace of model iterations leaves modest uncertainty around exact leaderboard snapshots.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$28,008End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have driven the 96% market-implied probability by topping the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and multiple agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, including strong ARC-AGI-3 results and consistent leadership on LMArena Elo scores as of late August 2026. These models deliver frontier-level performance in long-horizon tasks, tool use, and production workflows at competitive pricing, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and other labs across verified third-party evaluations. With resolution only days away, traders see limited room for reversal absent an unannounced last-minute update from competitors, though the inherent pace of model iterations leaves modest uncertainty around exact leaderboard snapshots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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