Anthropic’s dominant 98.2% market-implied odds reflect its Claude family models—particularly Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and related variants—leading text-to-text arenas and math-specific leaderboards such as MathArena as of mid-to-late August 2026. Recent releases and demonstrated gains in long-horizon mathematical reasoning, including notable progress on advanced problems like the Riemann hypothesis, have reinforced trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in capability benchmarks. With resolution days away, limited scope remains for competitors such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol or Google’s Gemini variants to overtake via new updates. Realistic challenges include an unexpected high-impact release or scoring shift on the underlying arena before month-end, though current trajectories favor sustained Anthropic positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 98.2%
OpenAI 1.8%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
$95,513 Vol.
$95,513 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Anthropic
98%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Alibaba
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 98.2%
OpenAI 1.8%
Google <1%
Alibaba <1%
$95,513 Vol.
$95,513 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Anthropic
$32,525 Vol.
98%
OpenAI
$13,929 Vol.
2%
$19,941 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$9,947 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,690 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,432 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,148 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$372 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$372 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$494 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,079 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,125 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,122 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$553 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$451 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$495 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$372 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$564 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$531 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s dominant 98.2% market-implied odds reflect its Claude family models—particularly Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and related variants—leading text-to-text arenas and math-specific leaderboards such as MathArena as of mid-to-late August 2026. Recent releases and demonstrated gains in long-horizon mathematical reasoning, including notable progress on advanced problems like the Riemann hypothesis, have reinforced trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in capability benchmarks. With resolution days away, limited scope remains for competitors such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol or Google’s Gemini variants to overtake via new updates. Realistic challenges include an unexpected high-impact release or scoring shift on the underlying arena before month-end, though current trajectories favor sustained Anthropic positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ET
Volume
$95,513End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s dominant 98.2% market-implied odds reflect its Claude family models—particularly Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and related variants—leading text-to-text arenas and math-specific leaderboards such as MathArena as of mid-to-late August 2026. Recent releases and demonstrated gains in long-horizon mathematical reasoning, including notable progress on advanced problems like the Riemann hypothesis, have reinforced trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in capability benchmarks. With resolution days away, limited scope remains for competitors such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol or Google’s Gemini variants to overtake via new updates. Realistic challenges include an unexpected high-impact release or scoring shift on the underlying arena before month-end, though current trajectories favor sustained Anthropic positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$95,513End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s dominant 98.2% market-implied odds reflect its Claude family models—particularly Claude Fable 5, Opus 5, and related variants—leading text-to-text arenas and math-specific leaderboards such as MathArena as of mid-to-late August 2026. Recent releases and demonstrated gains in long-horizon mathematical reasoning, including notable progress on advanced problems like the Riemann hypothesis, have reinforced trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in capability benchmarks. With resolution days away, limited scope remains for competitors such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol or Google’s Gemini variants to overtake via new updates. Realistic challenges include an unexpected high-impact release or scoring shift on the underlying arena before month-end, though current trajectories favor sustained Anthropic positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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