Anthropic’s models hold the top positions on the Text Arena Math leaderboard as of late August 2026, with Claude Opus 5 variants and Fable 5 leading in crowdsourced Elo ratings for mathematical reasoning. This positioning drives the 77% implied probability for Anthropic, reinforced by the July release of Claude Opus 5 and an unreleased research model’s August breakthrough raising the Riemann zeta zeros lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2% through multi-agent coordination. OpenAI and Google trail in current math-specific rankings, while other labs show limited recent progress on frontier benchmarks, leaving little near-term catalyst to shift trader consensus before October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 77%
OpenAI 12%
Google 6.0%
Tencent 4.0%
$14,749 Vol.
$14,749 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
77%
OpenAI
12%
6%
Tencent
4%
DeepSeek
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
Meituan
3%
Alibaba
2%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
StepFun
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 12%
Google 6.0%
Tencent 4.0%
$14,749 Vol.
$14,749 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,887 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
$2,643 Vol.
12%
$364 Vol.
6%
Tencent
$386 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$420 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$330 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$318 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$353 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$327 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$405 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$338 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$382 Vol.
1%
Meta
$320 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$350 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$316 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$332 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$320 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$354 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$295 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$313 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s models hold the top positions on the Text Arena Math leaderboard as of late August 2026, with Claude Opus 5 variants and Fable 5 leading in crowdsourced Elo ratings for mathematical reasoning. This positioning drives the 77% implied probability for Anthropic, reinforced by the July release of Claude Opus 5 and an unreleased research model’s August breakthrough raising the Riemann zeta zeros lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2% through multi-agent coordination. OpenAI and Google trail in current math-specific rankings, while other labs show limited recent progress on frontier benchmarks, leaving little near-term catalyst to shift trader consensus before October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$14,749End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s models hold the top positions on the Text Arena Math leaderboard as of late August 2026, with Claude Opus 5 variants and Fable 5 leading in crowdsourced Elo ratings for mathematical reasoning. This positioning drives the 77% implied probability for Anthropic, reinforced by the July release of Claude Opus 5 and an unreleased research model’s August breakthrough raising the Riemann zeta zeros lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2% through multi-agent coordination. OpenAI and Google trail in current math-specific rankings, while other labs show limited recent progress on frontier benchmarks, leaving little near-term catalyst to shift trader consensus before October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$14,749End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s models hold the top positions on the Text Arena Math leaderboard as of late August 2026, with Claude Opus 5 variants and Fable 5 leading in crowdsourced Elo ratings for mathematical reasoning. This positioning drives the 77% implied probability for Anthropic, reinforced by the July release of Claude Opus 5 and an unreleased research model’s August breakthrough raising the Riemann zeta zeros lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2% through multi-agent coordination. OpenAI and Google trail in current math-specific rankings, while other labs show limited recent progress on frontier benchmarks, leaving little near-term catalyst to shift trader consensus before October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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