Google’s specialized Gemini reasoning models, particularly recent Deep Think upgrades emphasizing mathematical rigor and scientific discovery, have driven strong trader consensus around its 74.5% implied probability for second place on Text Arena Math leaderboards by late October. Demonstrated capabilities on benchmarks such as Humanity’s Last Exam, IMO-level problems, and AIME—with high scores achieved without tools—position Google ahead of peers in contest-style mathematical reasoning. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Anthropic’s Claude models trail at 11% and 5.5% respectively, reflecting solid but less differentiated recent math performance amid a competitive frontier where Chinese labs like Alibaba and Z.ai hold single-digit odds due to narrower demonstrated edges on these specific arenas. Upcoming model releases or benchmark refreshes through October remain key swing factors in this closely watched segment of AI capability tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 75%
OpenAI 11%
Alibaba 8%
Anthropic 6%
$32,678 Vol.
$32,678 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
75%
OpenAI
11%
Alibaba
8%
Anthropic
6%
Z.ai
2%
Meituan
2%
Baidu
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Google 75%
OpenAI 11%
Alibaba 8%
Anthropic 6%
$32,678 Vol.
$32,678 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$23,174 Vol.
75%
OpenAI
$624 Vol.
11%
Alibaba
$898 Vol.
8%
Anthropic
$912 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$485 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$756 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$378 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$373 Vol.
1%
Meta
$383 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$356 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$428 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$442 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$369 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$513 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$365 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$574 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$455 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$423 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$435 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$336 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s specialized Gemini reasoning models, particularly recent Deep Think upgrades emphasizing mathematical rigor and scientific discovery, have driven strong trader consensus around its 74.5% implied probability for second place on Text Arena Math leaderboards by late October. Demonstrated capabilities on benchmarks such as Humanity’s Last Exam, IMO-level problems, and AIME—with high scores achieved without tools—position Google ahead of peers in contest-style mathematical reasoning. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Anthropic’s Claude models trail at 11% and 5.5% respectively, reflecting solid but less differentiated recent math performance amid a competitive frontier where Chinese labs like Alibaba and Z.ai hold single-digit odds due to narrower demonstrated edges on these specific arenas. Upcoming model releases or benchmark refreshes through October remain key swing factors in this closely watched segment of AI capability tracking.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$32,678End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s specialized Gemini reasoning models, particularly recent Deep Think upgrades emphasizing mathematical rigor and scientific discovery, have driven strong trader consensus around its 74.5% implied probability for second place on Text Arena Math leaderboards by late October. Demonstrated capabilities on benchmarks such as Humanity’s Last Exam, IMO-level problems, and AIME—with high scores achieved without tools—position Google ahead of peers in contest-style mathematical reasoning. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Anthropic’s Claude models trail at 11% and 5.5% respectively, reflecting solid but less differentiated recent math performance amid a competitive frontier where Chinese labs like Alibaba and Z.ai hold single-digit odds due to narrower demonstrated edges on these specific arenas. Upcoming model releases or benchmark refreshes through October remain key swing factors in this closely watched segment of AI capability tracking.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$32,678End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s specialized Gemini reasoning models, particularly recent Deep Think upgrades emphasizing mathematical rigor and scientific discovery, have driven strong trader consensus around its 74.5% implied probability for second place on Text Arena Math leaderboards by late October. Demonstrated capabilities on benchmarks such as Humanity’s Last Exam, IMO-level problems, and AIME—with high scores achieved without tools—position Google ahead of peers in contest-style mathematical reasoning. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and Anthropic’s Claude models trail at 11% and 5.5% respectively, reflecting solid but less differentiated recent math performance amid a competitive frontier where Chinese labs like Alibaba and Z.ai hold single-digit odds due to narrower demonstrated edges on these specific arenas. Upcoming model releases or benchmark refreshes through October remain key swing factors in this closely watched segment of AI capability tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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